A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—31.7.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---45560.90---High—45727.75---Low---45238.80---Close—45468.10 on 28.7.2023.

Support:-45416/45210/45179/44958/44939/44812/44787.10/ 44747.35/44592/44508.40/44498.60/44459.25/44360/44266/44220.10/44151.80/44095.25/43874.05/43706.15/43614.65/43598.20/43397.50/43390.30/43078.90/43044.07/43038.25/42986.45/42822.15/42740/42582.20.

Resistance:- 45525/45655.50/45658/45845/45905.85/45940/46268/46340/46369.50/47448/47575/47808/48229/48685/49040/49240/49525.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After yesterday’s key reversal it opened with a down gap and thereafter slightly recovered and moved above previous days closed but could not sustain and plunged down but in last half hour of trade it recovered to some extent and finally ended the day with a loss of 211.20 points. It is already into correction mode, it has fallen below some of its short term moving averages, it is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart after a long time and now three out of five important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is very concerning and pointing that it can go down sharply from here in coming days and I believe the process is on. It is important to mention here that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in next 3-4 trading sessions and closes above some of its critical points as mentioned below and sustain above it then the continuation of the up move will be in jeopardy and it may keep drifting down and sustained break below 45238 & 45120(figure can change) may drag it down fast. The short term technical chart setup and parameters are weak now but it is still in the strong long term uptrend and it is buying on decline market in general as of now. But in view of volatility, key reversal, negative technical indicators and correction mode it is suggested to defer buying on decline for some time till visible sign of correction completion emerges because correction can get ugly also at times, so watch out. 

Moving  down further from here its good support points could be at 45407---45327---45331---45238---45120---44958---44912---44825---44787---44747—44695---44539----44151.80(figures may change), these could be possible buying points also as  it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again. It is into correction mode now and break below each support point will weaken it further, sustained break below 45407—45331 & 45225 may trigger fresh fall, break below 45120 could be highly concerning, there is a strong chance that it could bounce back from 44912 but break below it could be a bad sign, break below 44539 will get it into deep and long corrective mode and finally it may lose upside steam for a while if it fall below 44151.80 and sustain on the closing basis.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 45475--- 45570----45655.50---45697----45760--- 45940---46187---46220---46268---46340---46364---46369.50---47448---47980 it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again. Please note that 45506(figure may change) is its pullback threshold point and if it closes above it and sustains then the chances are that it could possibly move up further to 45671—45804---45938---46103---46143, this rally can fizzle out at any of these points or earlier, but if it closes above 46143 and sustains then it could possibly retest its all-time high of 46369.50 or may go beyond it also.  It will get out of corrective mode if it closes above 45940 and sustains and then it is expected to pick up good up momentum again.   

IMPORTANT NOTE:-Long trade below 45570 & 45238 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe trader’s it is suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 45570 or correction completion sign emerges. However, aggressive traders can also try long trade if it moves above 45591 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 45450 or can buy on decline near or within the range of 5331 & 45238 but not below it with a stop loss of 45050. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

 2. It is in the strong uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into correction mode and other parameters are also weak, therefore short trade can be attempted on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45875---45940 with a stop loss of 46080 or sell if it moves below 45238 with a stop loss of 45470 .It could be a risky trade mind you but worth trying.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.