A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY —13.3.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open-40805.25-High-40839-Low-40341.70-Close-40485.45 on 10.3.2023.

Support:-40473/40341.70/40312.90/40288.90/40269/39868.85/39600.25/39419.80/39258.25/39197.20/38765.85/38437.95/38426.65/37950---943/37581.05/37386.35.

Resistance: 40819.15/41095.10/41569.45/41643.90/41671.20/41677.65/41729/41791.95/41829.60/41840.15/41877/41979.10/42078.90/42202.55/42555.15/42622.75/42716.80/42740/42880/42948/42986.45/43038.25/43081/43339.15/43498.05/43515.05/43578.40/43614.65/43853.40/44151.80.                       

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

The on-going week ended today i.e. on 10.3.2023 it was a truncated week and for the first 3 days it moved in a range and on the last day of the week it plunged down sharply and closed with a weekly loss of 765.90 points which is a weak sign. It opened with a down gap and went down further, therefore today’s gap still exists and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading session which is technically possible then it can move up to 41208, please note that if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for now. The price action was terribly weak and it has shattered the technical setup. The bias is bearish.

It is still into deep corrective mode, it has fallen within its long term moving average range which is placed between 41275---39246(figures will change every day, it is very strong support range) for the day, it is below its short & medium term moving averages on the daily chart and some below the weekly chart also, it is below its major pullback trigger point of 40537(figure will change if it breaks 39419.80) but it is still above its short pullback trigger point of  40162(figure will change if it breaks 39600.25) so feeble up move can be there if it holds 40162 but strong and meaningful pullback can only be expected if it sustains above 40537 on the closing basis and finally some important technical indicators which were looking positive on the daily chart are now on the verge of turning negative , and most importantly the technical indicators are already negative as of now on the weekly & monthly chart indicating that it could break 38650 levels or can go much below also in coming days, which is highly concerning. Please note that if it does not bounce back sharply in next 3-4 trading session and move above some of its important points mentioned hereunder then fall may accelerate.  

Moving down it will find support at 40391---40341.70---40162---40089---40015---39970---39600.25---39419.80---39246--- (lower band of long term moving average range, it changes every day) ---38983----38739(these points could be possible buying points also), break below 40162 may end the possibility of a pullback up move , break below 39600.25 & 39419.80 may deepen down move.   Please note that 39246(lower band of the long term moving average, it changes every day) & 38739 are the last key support points for the time being and sustained break below it could trigger fresh fall and finally 37386.35 is the very critical and most important support point and sustained break below it on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, which may be kept in mind.

Similarly moving up it will find resistance at 40537---40769---40880---41228---41567---41676---41786---41979---42344---42555.15----42986.45---43039---43206(these points could be possible sell point also), up move can fizzle out at any of the above points or earlier. But if it moves above 40537 and sustain then it could give a pullback up move, if it moves above 41375 & 42555.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it will completely get out of the corrective mode, sustained break above 42986.45 & 43039 on the closing basis will put it back on the strong up track mode and finally if it moves above 43206 and sustain on the closing basis then there is a possibility that it could retest its all-time high of 44151.80 or may go beyond it also.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode and pullback rally can fizzle out any time. Please do not trade without stop loss.

TRADING VIEW: - Long trade can be tried if it moves above 40537 and maintains for some time with a stop loss of 40430. Short trade can also be tried on the rise near critical resistance points or if it moves below 40340 with a stop loss of 40550.

 NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.