CNX-NIFTY
Open—17055.80--High—17160.70—Low—16782.40---Close-17053.95
on 30.11.2021.
Support:16782.40/16701.85/16565/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.
Resistance: -17055/17216.10/17254.20/17326.10/17436.50/17452.90/17613.15/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/s18342.05/18604.50.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a flat note and smartly
went up and also exhibited huge volatility but eventually slipped down and
closed with a loss of 70.75 points.
The volatility is not good for the market. It is already into medium term correction mode,
which is a very weak sign. Furthermore it is below all its short term moving
averages on the daily and the weekly chart, below its all medium term moving
averages on the daily chart and also below some of its long term important parameters
on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does not bounce
back sharply and move above at least some of its key points in shortest
possible time then the fall may continue. It did bounce back sharply today but
could not sustain which clearly indicates that the sustained bounce back is
very less likely to happen in coming days/weeks. Moving down further its other
important support points are at 16844---16701---16565.60---16376---16008(figure
may change), please note that sustained break below 16844(figure will change every day) will put the long term uptrend in
potential danger, furthermore sustained break
below 16008(figure will change every
day) may end the long term up trend and it may get into bear market. Similarly moving up it will face stiff
resistance from its critical points at 17254.20----17326.10---17452.90---17613---17792.95---17947.65---17997---18086---18174---18181---18282---18375(figures
may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it has to move above
this range and sustain, chances of which is pretty weak at this point of time.
It is important to mention here that
it is way below its correction completion point of 17313---17875 & 18285.80, its pullback threshold points are at 16945---17089--17120 & 17185 (figure
may change) it did cross all the points decisively intraday today but could
not sustain and just managed to close above first point of 16945 which shows very weak undertone in the market. Please note
that if it sustain above it then it may give a lame pullback up move, if it
closes above 17089 & 17120 and
sustain then it may get feeble strength in the up move and if it closes above 17185 and sustain then chances are that
it may give slightly better and moderately strong pullback move mind you.
Therefore important and the key pullback threshold point is at 17185 below it any up move would be a
very short lived one. The overall short term technical setup is terribly weak
as of now and the potential direction is down now.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert
and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is important to mention here that its
long term uptrend has got a jolt yesterday as it breached its long term trend
upholding point of 16844(figure will change every day) intraday but bounced back to close above it ,however
breaking it intraday is also concerning and a terribly weak indication. Furthermore
it is into medium term correction mode and below all its critical support
points also as mentioned above, which is all the more bad sign. Furthermore,
please note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily
and weekly chart which indicates that it could seek much lower levels in coming
days/weeks (it has been making new low
quite often for the last few of days) with in between short relief rallies;
therefore it seems that the fall may continue if the technical indicators or
the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in medium term corrective
mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible
sign of correction completion emerges. The, short term bias is hugely weak and
negative.
In view of the above, it is into medium
term correction mode now and also below its important pullback threshold point
of 17185 therefore for safe traders
long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes above 17185 and sustain for the pullback
gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 17060 and maintain for some time or on
decline near 16833 but not below it.
I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky
affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious and vigilant in the long
trade at this point of time, it is therefore suggested to avoid long trade now.
It is still in the long term uptrend but
got a warning signal and also into medium term correction mode, therefore short
trade can be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge
gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but
short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and
vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly
suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 16850 but not below it with a stop loss
of 16775. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves above 17060 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 16980. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly
risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 17225---17250 with a stop loss of 17300. It could be a
risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 16980
with a stop loss of 17060. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gain.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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