Open—35958.80---High—36774.20--Low—35526.35---Close—35695.30 on 30.11.2021.
Support:35531.35/35359.25/35327.90/34817.50/34115/33908/33273.95.
Resistance: -35810.90/35977.97/36151.95/36525.95/36647/36655.40/36876.35/37140/37232.20/37708.75/37891/38112.75/38377.25/38426/38932.45/39117.15/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a flat to negative note and
then smartly went up and also exhibited huge volatility but eventually slipped
down and closed with a loss of 281.15 points.
The volatility is not good for the market. Most importantly it has broken below
its long term correction threshold point of 35761.25 today therefore it has slipped into long term correction
mode which is really concerning, which may please be noted. It is below its
short term moving averages on the daily and the weekly chart, below all its
medium term moving averages and also below some of its long term important parameters
on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does not bounce
back sharply and move above at least some of the key points in shortest
possible time then the fall may continue. It did bounce back sharply today but
could not sustain which clearly indicates that the sustained bounce back is
very less likely to happen in coming days/weeks. Moving down further its other
important support points are at 35359.25---35327.90---35007---34817.50---34115---33908
(figure may change), please note that
it is decisively below its long term uptrend upholding point of 36839(figure will change every day) which is very concerning and if it does not
bounce back above it continuation of the long term uptrend will be in question,
furthermore sustained break below 35007(figure will change every day) may
end the long term up trend and it may get into bear market. Similarly moving up
it will face stiff resistance from its critical points at 35904.10---36151---36525.95---36876.35---37477---37591---37871---37988---38242---38494---40412---40721---41034
(figures may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it
has to move above this range and sustain, chances of which is pretty weak at
this point of time.
It is important to mention here that
it is way below its correction completion point of 35761.25---38796---39959.70 & 40489, its pullback threshold points are at 35933---36222---36468---36862.50 (figure may change) it did cross first
three points decisively intraday today but could not sustain and closed below
all, which shows very weak undertone
in the market. Please note that if it moves up and closes above 35933 and sustain
then it may give a lame pullback up move, if it closes above 36222 & 36468 and sustain then it
may get feeble strength in the up move and if it closes above 36862.50 and sustain then chances are
that it may give slightly better and moderately strong pullback move mind you.
So the important and key pullback threshold point is 36862.50 and long term uptrend upholding point is 36839 therefore it seems that below these
levels any up move would be very short lived one as it happened today. The
overall short term technical setup is terribly weak and it has seriously
threatened the long term uptrend also, therefore the potential direction is
down now.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert
and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is important to mention here that its
long term uptrend is in jeopardy as it
has decisively broken its uptrend upholding point of 36839(figure will change every day) on 26.11.2021,
which is very concerning and indicates further fall ahead. Furthermore I once
again repeat that sustained break below 35007
may end the long term uptrend. It is into long term correction mode now, it is
below its all critical support points also as mentioned above which is all the
more bad sign. Furthermore, please note that few important technical indicators
are also weak on the daily and weekly chart which indicates that it could seek
much lower levels in coming days/weeks (it
has been making new low quite often for the last few days) with in between
short relief rallies; therefore it seems that the fall may continue if the
technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in
medium term corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be
adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The, short
term bias is hugely weak and negative.
In view of the above, it is into long
term correction mode now and also below its important pullback threshold point
of 36862.50, therefore for safe
traders long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes above 36862.50 and sustain for the pullback
gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 35330 but not below it, else avoid. I
strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly
risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at
this point of time, it is therefore suggested to avoid long trade now. Please note that its long term uptrend is in
question now, therefore short trade should be attempted on
the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking
advantage of the down move gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 35330 levels with a stop loss of 35150. It
is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 36200--36300 with a stop loss of 36400. It could be a
highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.
Or
Sell on the rise near
35905 but not above it with a stop loss of 36050. It could be a risky trade but
worth trying for intraday gains.
Or
Sell if it moves below 35520
with a stop loss of 36720. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gains.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and
exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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