A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—29.7.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-34839.45---High-34841.55--Low—34115.20---Close-34532.90 on 28.7.2021

Support:34525.45/34410/34374/34357.35/34322/34287/34115.20/33908.95/33625/33371/33306.80/32842.30/32613.10/32465.45/32415.15/32347/32157.05/32130/31783.60/31661/31649.49/31297.30/31264.05. 

Resistance;34635.95/34859.90/34930/34976/35380/35428.15/35491.95/35584.30/35648/35811/35985.25/36248/36455.15/36497/36615/37232/37708.75.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important) 

It continued the down move today and plunged down in the afternoon and hit a low of 34115.20 but bounced back sharply from the lower end of the support range and closed with a loss of 264.55 points.  It was already into very short term correction mode and as it breached 34663 levels today so it has slipped into deep short term corrective mode now and it is below its short and medium term moving averages also these are an extremely weak sign. Please note that if it remains below 34663 down move may accelerate, but if it moves above 34555 and sustain on the closing basis then it could still make an effort to give some pullback move. But it will get out of corrective mode if it moves above 34663 & 35490 and sustain on the closing basis else down move may continue. Going down it has bed of supports in the range of 34525---34410---34374---34322---33908, therefore till it holds this range there is no fear of sharp and consistent decline and it did showed it strength today with a sharp bounce back from this range. It is important to mention here that it has to move above the range of 35648---35811---35980---36248 for steady and strong up momentum, if it moves above 36248 and sustain on the closing basis then it could possibly retest it’s all time high of 37708.75 or may go beyond also, chances of it happening seems very bleak at this point of time.

The long term bias still looks positive for the uptrend but it has been threatened today by the sharp swing in the prices, which is  concerning . The short term outlook has turned extremely weak, furthermore one very important technical indicator on the daily and weekly chart is still showing weakness and indicates that it could drag it down again in coming days if it does not improve and it has been falling for the last three days. So watch out and be cautious and careful particularly in the long trade.

In view of the above observation, since it has slipped into deep short term correction mode, therefore for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till it gives visible indication of correction completion or it closes above 35160. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 34663 and maintain for some time or can try buy on decline at appropriate points or near 34100 but not below it .Please note that in a weak market long trade on decline could be a risky affair. Since it has not yet crossed some of its critical long term averages and overall technical setup is showing extreme weakness, therefore short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday or otherwise corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 35160 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 35000.It is for the aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline at appropriate points or near 34100 but not below it with a stop loss of 33850. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 35200---35300 with a stop loss of 35400. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 34357 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34460. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it does not move above 34950 in first one and half hour of trade even intraday with a stop loss of 35080. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.