A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—23.6.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-35084.90--High-35281.90--Low—34664.35--Close-34745 on 22.6.2021

Support:34658.70/34641/34410/34374/34287/33990.80/33625/33371/33306.80/32842.30/32613.10/32465.45/32415.15/32347/32157.05/32130/31783.60/31661/31649.49/31297.30/31264.05.

 

Resistance;34893.25/34930/34976/35380/35428.15/35584.30/35648/35810.90/35902.90/36248/36455.15/36497/36615/37232/37708.75.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and went further high but could not sustain at the upper levels and finally closed with a loss of 126.30 points, which is a weak sign.  It is making lower top and bottom on the line chart, so it is already into very short correction mode, furthermore it is still below some of its short term moving averages and some technical indicators are also showing potential weakness and most importantly it has broken its short term rising trend line today, which is a bad sign and if it remains below it then it may drag it down in coming days. Please note the rising trend line is placed at 35080 (it will move up every day) for 23.6.2021, so to give it some strength it has to move above 35080 on the closing basis and then maintain above the trend line (its level will move up every day) on the closing basis then the chances are that the up move may start again, else down move will continue with intermittent relief rallies.

It is important to mention here that it will only resume the steady up move once it crosses its critical range of 35648---36248 and sustain above it on the closing basis, else down move will definitely continue. Please note that if it sustain above 36248 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 37708.75 or may go beyond also. But looking at today’s and last few days’ price movements chances of moving above 36248 and sustain looks extremely bleak at this point of time. However going up to 36248 level from here it will face critical resistance at 34894---34930---35070---35176---35472---35527---35584.30---35649---35810.90---36248. Similarly moving down its critical support points would be at 34641.20---34558---34535.26(this figure can change)—34410---33908.95---33625 & 33273.  It is already into very short term corrective mode, sustained break below 34535.26 will push it into short term corrective mode, sustained break below 33908.95 will accelerate the down move and sustained break below 33625 & 33273 could deepen the correction further. The other critical support points are at 34287---34249.33---33625---33334---33273---33130---32921.15---32613---32465. The long term outlook is positive as of now but short term bias still looks weak till it moves above its critical range as mentioned above. 

It is important to mention here that technically this on-going uptrend is showing enough strength and looking good for the continuation of the up move but this up rally is not in sync with the fundamentals and you are well aware that it is the fundamentals which eventually hold the Priceline. Therefore this on-going up rally may deceive you at any point of time, so be alert and careful in long trade henceforth.   

In view of the above observation, it is into very short corrective mode; therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade in general till clarity on correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 34872 or above 35080 and maintain for some time or can buy on decline at appropriate points or near 34535 but not below it. Please note that long trade below 34535 could be a highly risky trade because if it moves and sustain below it for a longer time during the day then it could move down sharply. Since it has not crossed its critical resistance range as mentioned above and into corrective mode and other technical indicators are also weak, therefore short trade should be tried after the reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near 34535 but not below it with a stop loss of 34435. It is for the highly aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 34871 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34720. It is for the highly aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 35080 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34900. It is for the highly aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 35200---35300 with a stop loss of 35400. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 34535 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34680. It could be a  risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it does not move above 34872 in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 34950. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.