Open—13758.60
--High—14336.35—Low—13661.75---Close-14281.20 on 1.2.2021.
Support:14222.80/14046/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13818.20/13777.50/13721/13713.25/13611/13597.50/13548.90/13530.71/13454.48/13399.30/13242/13145.85/13131.45/12919.88/12790.40/12730.25/12607.70/12430.50.
Resistance:14310/14567.27/14653.45/14770/14823/14890/14920/15022/15350/15471/15868/16047.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a positive note today but after the announcement
of the Union Budget it moved up sharply and closed with a huge gain of 646.60 points and as it closed way above
the threshold point of 13869.75 for
the pullback move so the relief rally is on now. Its most critical points for
the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and today
it have decisively crossed all these points which is hugely positive sign and
if it remains above these points on the closing basis then the up move will
continue with intermittent correction. Its other key points are at 14370.73---14161.80---13818.20---13044---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is below its first key point of 14370.73 therefore it is still in short
term correction mode and break below 14161.80
levels may accelerate the down move again. Please note that sustained close
below 13818.20 will push it into medium
term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained
break below 13044 on the closing
basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten
the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
The short term technical setup has improved because of the
robust up move today and the pullback rally is on and if it sustain above 14161.80 on the closing basis then this
rally could extend to 14310---14480.55---14522
levels and if it move and sustain above 14522 on the closing basis then it could retest it’s all time high
point of 14753.55 or can go beyond
also in coming days. It is important to mention here that today’s rise was may
be event led(because of Union Budget) therefore it is better to watch its
movement for next 2-3 days to get
confirmation of the correction completion, furthermore if it was short covering
led rise today then chances are that it can fizzle out also, so be careful.
Please note that today’s rise has reversed some short term technical parameters
for good and further rise from here will strengthen it, but the concerning thing
is RSI negative divergence still exists. The long term bias is up.
Moving down its critical support points
at 14222.80---14199.50---14161.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13741.65---13634----13596.75.
Moving up its critical resistance points
at 14310---14370.73---14481---14522---14653.45---14753.55---14771---14823---14890---14920---15022---15069---15195---15350---15471---15868.
Since correction seems to be over and pullback rally
is on therefore long trade can be tried if it moves and maintain above 14337
for some time or buy on the decline but not below 14161. I once again
repeat that today’s rise was event led therefore one should be careful in long
trade because if this rise is because of short covering then it could fizzle
out also which may please be noted. It seems that it has reversed the short
term trend therefore short trade in general should be avoided but it can be tried
after a reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for
taking advantage of the intraday down correction or otherwise but with extreme
alertness because the long term technical setup is good as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY
1. Buy if it moves and sustain above 14337 levels for some time
with a stop loss of 14270.It could be a risky trade.
Or
Buy on decline near but not below 14161 with a stop loss of 14120.It
could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of
14480--14520 with a stop loss of 14560. It could be a risky trade but worth
trying.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14120 with a stop loss of 14170. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Or
Sell if it does not move above 14337 even in
intraday in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 14370. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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