CNX-NIFTY
Open—22568.95—High—22613.30---Low---22508.40--Close---22545.05 on 27.2.2025.
Support:22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:22768.40/22775.70/22786.90/22794.70/22976.85/23047.25/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a small loss
of 2.50 points. It has been falling for the last seven days in a row, so it
may stage a short relief rally in coming days but that rally may not last. The
gap it created on 24.2.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill
the gap in the next 2--3 trading sessions, which is technically possible
then it can come up to 22720.30, but if it does not fill the gap in the
stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being,
but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting
volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup on the daily chart is terribly
weak, as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all its
short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise, it is also
below all its pullback threshold points and most importantly it well below its
major long term rising trend line, this is a very significant development and
finally it is decisively below its most crucial support range of 22794.70---22786.90---22768.40 & 22720, which it defended 8 times in a
short span of time. So, all together the undertone is terribly weak, therefore,
further fall looks inevitable in coming times may be with short relief rally at
times, provided it does not bounce back above the aforesaid range and sustain
on the closing basis.. Moving down further, from here its next strong support
points could be at 22410---22281—22165---21821---21777.65---21710---21530 and it could bounce back from
any of these points, but break and sustained close below 22281 & 22165 can drag
it down to the range of 21281---21137
or lower. Please note that if it moves below 21021.88 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most
importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain
price-wise & time-wise both. It is important
to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly
chart and its technical parameters therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term and
may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to
reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The
short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened
and in jeopardy now.
It is important to mention here that the
major long term trend line which was drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made
on 24.3.2020 is decisively broken after almost five years, which is
a very weak sign and if it does not bounce back above it in a shortest possible
time, then it may witness an accelerated fall. Please note that the trend line
is placed for the month of Feb-2025 at 22950 & for the month of March-2025
at 23150
Moving up the other key resistance points
would be at 22814.94----23062.85---23131—23397.87---23422---23531----23637.65----23644.80---23656----23893.70----23952----24017----24074----24149----24203(some
figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 22814.94 it
is a short pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then
it may give some hope to move up further, if it moves above 23062.85---23131
and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain some strength to extend
the up-move, , if it moves above 23397.87 which is a long pullback threshold point then
it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move, if it moves above 23422
and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen further but to keep
the hope of strong up move alive in the 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it
move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good
foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend
further for sure and if it moves above the range of 24074----24149----24203 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate
and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get
good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong
up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75
& 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and
sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER
PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still below its
neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing
basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510.
Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70
and sustain and it will be fully negated
if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and
rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes
above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it
closes below it.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It still has lower top & bottom on the
line & bar chart , it is below all
its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and majorly below
on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on
the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart,
which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, all the seven important
technical indicators are negative now and maximum are in sell mode, but the
comforting thing is that is in the oversold zone, so, it may rally at times but
here please note that it can remain in the oversold zone for a long time and a
meaningful relief rally may not happen, therefore, broadly it is emitting weak signal, so,
further fall looks inevitable in coming times with in between short relief
rally at times.
Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge
negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but
that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge
negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore, all together
indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not
yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks
and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for
further directional indication.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below
all its pullback threshold point
therefore it is sell on the rise
market now in general , but long trade
can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective
gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 22950 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in the oversold zone.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
correction will deepen.
4. All the seven technical indicators are
negative on the daily chart with almost all in the sell mode.
5. It is below all its long-term
moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.
6. It is below its short, medium
& long pullback threshold point of 22819.14---23067.05---23402.07
(figure may change), sustained close
below these points can weaken the chances of an up-move and it starts to moves
down.
7. It is below its most critical
points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please
note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in
the year 2025.
8 It is below almost all its
short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for day is between 23131----22988----22940----22815---22802---22729(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may
accelerate the down move.
9. It still has lower top &
bottom on the line & bar chart.
10. The price action was negative
today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near 22501 if it holds this point for some
time, but not below it then with a stop loss of 22450 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please note that long trade
in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22660----22700
with a stop loss of 22760 or can sell if it moves below 22500 and
maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 22585. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
