CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51030.95--High—51353.50--Low—49904.40--Close—50088.35 on 13.11.2024.
Support:49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50865.45/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51354.85/51750.10/51996.65/52199.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a colossal loss of 1069.45 points.
The overall chart setup is weak; it is still into the deep correction mode, It is
below all its short & medium term moving averages on the daily chart and also
below all its short term & few medium term moving average on the weekly
chart and below few short term moving average on the monthly chart too and most
importantly it is also below few long term moving average, it has made lower
top & bottom on the line chart again and finally almost all important technical indicators have also turned
negative on the daily chart and triggered sell signal. Therefore all
development together are concerning and indicates further fall ahead in the
coming days. Please note that to give a hope of moving up it has to move above
the range of 50236----50530.15----50576---50895---50981.26----51236(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else it will keep going down
with in between relief rallies. But going down it has strong bed of support in
the range of 50047----49393(figure will change daily), it is supposed to be a strong bounce back range but
if it breaks this range and sustain on the closing basis then it may have free
fall. The short & medium term trend is bearish and it has threatened the
long term uptrend and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above
50236----50576---50895 & 51236(figure will change daily) and sustain on the
closing basis.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50047-----49903----49713-----49654.65----49594----49393-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that if it remains
below 50617 on the closing basis the
it can drag it down to 49654.65 or
lower. Please note that the range of 50047----49393
is a very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below
this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. It has already
threatened the long term uptrend as it is below its main threshold point of 51236,
break and sustained close below 49393 may potentially end the long term uptrend
for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that to give a ray of hope for a continued up
move it has to move above 50576----50895----50981.26
& 51236 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, close
above 50981.26 & 51236 will
somewhat ensure the up-move can extend; else it will keep drifting down. Please
note that to get reasonable strength for the up-move it has to move above the
range of 51381----51411---51475.35----51519----51550.15----51606(figure
may change), to gain a
strong foothold it has to move above 52355---52494----52578 and sustain on the closing basis and for the strong strength for the
continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53555
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, then it
could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now it has oversold condition , it is has triggered sell signal on the daily chart, few technical indicators are weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the weekly and monthly chart , therefore all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down further and may seek lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies and the process is on. So watch out how it pans out in next few days , but sustained close below the range of 50617---51236(figure may change) may witness an accelerated fall.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend it threatened.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating oversold /neutral condition, in sell mode but not yet broken bottom on the indicator..
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Five out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative, slight positive divergence,
in the oversold/neutral zone, sell signal triggered. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, indicating overbought condition, sell signal
and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----51492.11
----50725.73---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4 The price action was weak today.
5. It slipped
into correction mode for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold
point of 52015.06(figure may change).
6. It is
below its strong pullback threshold point of 50981.06(figure may change), sustained
close below the above point may witness an accelerated fall.
7. It has
made lower top & bottom on the line chart again.
8 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51381---51411---51519----51552----51606--51841(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it
down further.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49750---49600 with a stop loss of 49350 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50550---50650 with
a stop loss of 50750 or can sell near 50194 if it remains below
it with a stop loss of 50400 It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
