CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50894.80--High—51080--Low—50794.45---Close—50985.70
on 22.8.2024.
Support:50830.70/50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 300.15 points. The stipulated time for filling the gap of 5.8.2024 has ended on 12.8.2024 but it will surely fill the gap one day (gap figure is -51087.85) and it has almost filled the gap today.
The technical setup is improving but still weak, the good point is that it is still holding onto its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(it did break this point intraday but bounced back) and above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart, it still has higher top & bottom on the line chart and higher top on the bar chart, and all the important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart, therefore all together it indicates positive outlook as of now for the continuation of the up move. So please note that if it could manage to hold the range of 50764---50529---50525---50413 & 50289(some figure may change) on the closing basis it can extend the up move and finally if it moves above 51585 & 51639.66(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it can get into good up momentum track again.
It is important to mention here that although it is looking
good for the continuation of the up on the daily chart, but it is still into deep
correction mode for its recent rise and also into correction for the earlier
rise; furthermore, it is below few of
its short-term moving averages on the weekly chart and also below few
medium-term moving averages on the daily chart, some important technical
indicators are negative on the weekly & monthly chart, and most importantly
the volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is also present but it neutralized on the daily chart little
while ago and now again it is in the overbought territory, therefore, all
indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly
chart is pointing that it could head down again but after this up move is over.
So be watchful till the chart setup and indicators build up good strength on
the weekly and monthly chart.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 50997----51070---51314----51506-----51585----51639.66----51706----51803----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves
above 51585 & 51639.66 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again
and thereafter crossing each point will strengthen the up move and finally if
it moves above 52618 and sustain on the closing basis then it could
retest its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it also and hit a
new high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 50764---50681----50529---50525----50413----50324---50289—--49717.78----49654----49530----49574----49537------49195---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, if it holds the range of 50764---50681----50529---50525---50413
& 50289(some figure may change) on the closing basis then the chance of
up move will be alive, else it will trigger fresh fall and thereafter break
below each point will weaken the setup further. Please note that the range of 49654---49574----49537-----49195 is a
very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below 49654
will trigger fresh fall, break and sustained close below 49574 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally
sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall again and that
could be sharp in the intensity and then the correction could be more painful
time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained close below 47533.83 can drag it down to 46077 or lower.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 50764---50529---50525---50413
& 50289 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN
THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT IT IS IN
CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49574 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. All the seven indicators are positive now, pointing that it could extend
the up move and indicate that it could head to 51600
levels or more as of now.
4. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
5. It still
has made higher top & bottom on the line after a long time & higher top
on the bar chart.
6. It is
above most of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 50764---50682----50594----50526----50525---50413(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
5 The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is
already into deep correction mode now as it is below almost all its important
correction threshold point of 53036.49----
52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53 & (figure may change), the other correction threshold points
are 50702.16
& 49877.99, sustained
close below the threshold points is a weak sign.
2. Some important
technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly
chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 50850----50750 with a stop loss of 50500 or can try long trade if it moves
above 51055 and maintain for some
time with a stop loss of 50820 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair
but can be tried near critical support
points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51350---51450 with
a stop loss of 51550 or can sell if it moves below 50680 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 50850 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses.
Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss
points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
