CNX-NIFTY
Open-21454.60--High—21459—Low—21247.05--Close-21352.60
on 25.1.2024.
Support: 21337.75/21285.55/ 21037.90/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.
Resistance: 21448.65/ 21492/21500.35/21593/21680/21727.75/21731.40/21763.95/21801.45/21834.35/21906/21931/21974/21982/
22027/22073/22124/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.
(Bold
and underlined figures are most important)
It opened on a flat to
minor positive note and then started slipping down and finally ended the day
with a loss of 101.35 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge
volatility which is not good for a steady and smooth movement and may
eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap
filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out
but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please note.
The technical setup is weak and it is well below its most critical &
important points of 21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 and to keep the up
momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the
closing basis else it may head down. Furthermore it is already into very
short, short, deep short and medium term correction mode as it close below its
threshold point of 21964.73---21853.38---21804.45 & 21568.23 (figure may
change) please note that break below 21348.58 & 20874.34(figure
may change) will push it into long and deep long term correction mode and sustained
break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction
may further deepen and can last longer. It is into medium term correction mode
now but the long term uptrend is still intact as of now. It is important to
mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21282
& 21370.12(figure may change) since it is above 21282 chance of a feeble up
move is still there but if it moves above 21370.12 and sustain on the closing
basis then there could be a possibility of a meaningful up move and the hope of
continuation of the up move will be alive, else correction may continue with in
between short relief rallies.
It is very important to mention here that all
the five important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and
indicates that it could drag it down to much lower levels in coming days, furthermore
one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative
and it is into medium term corrective mode. The chart setup has turned weak as
it is making lower top & bottom, it is below all its short term moving averages and
below some medium term moving averages on the daily chart and the price action has
been constantly weak, all together situation is concerning and further fall
from here looks inevitable. In view of the overall observation it is suggested
to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till visible
sign of correction completion emerges. However long trade can also be tried at
the most critical support points with strict short stop losses for pullback
gains, but it could be a risky affair mind you.
Moving up from here it may face strong
resistance at 21370.12---21448---21516---21593---21630---21727.75----21731.40----21747.16----21801.45---21834.45---21891.23---21926.76---22124.15---22220----22459---22478(figure may change) and it can correct
at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust
the up move at any of these points also and may head down.
Similarly moving down from here its important
support points could be at 21282---21248---21206---21137.20----21089---21040----20976.80----20946.35---20868.78---20769.50---20668----20324----20240(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate
the fall.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS
INTO MEDIUM TERM CORRECTIVE MODE BUT ABOVE SHORT PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINTS OF 21282
ONLY BUT TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL PULLBACK
UP MOVE IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21370.12 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE
CORRECTION MAY CONTINUE ONCE IT GOES BELOW 21282 AGAIN. PLEASE NOTE THAT CLOSE
ABOVE 21640 (FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) WILL GIVE IT AN IMPETUS TO MOVE UP.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 21282
with a stop loss of 21230. But aggressive traders can also try long
trade on sharp decline near 21040 with a stop loss of 20960. Please
note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be
tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback
gains.
2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short
trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into medium term
corrective mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise
or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution
and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21520---
21540 with a stop loss of 21600 or sell below 21230 with a stop
loss of 21300. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday
corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
