CNX-NIFTY
Open—23319.35—High—23381.60---Low---23222--Close---23361.05 on 3.2.2025.
Support:23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It
opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and
finally ended the day with a loss of 121.10 points. Please
note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a
steady market.
It is already into the deep corrective mode
and the overall technical setup is very weak and most importantly its long term
uptrend is jeopardized as it is below all its long term moving averages, therefore
further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But the good thing is
that its short term parameters have improved
on the daily chart as it is above its short & medium term pullback
threshold point and above all its short term moving averages also, but it
slipped into short correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below
its threshold point of 23433(figure may change), however moving down
further if it holds the range of 23341---23200(figures may change every day)
on the closing basis then it can still bounce back and may resume the up-move
but it may gain some strength if it moves above 23433 for the
continuation of the up-move. But break & sustained close below this range
of 23341---23200 will weaken it and up-move may end and it may start to
move down and then moving down its most important & critical support points
could be at 22976.85--22794.70---22786.90---22768.40 & 23725, break
& sustained close below these points and particularly below 22725 which
is major rising trend line count for the month of February-2025 may
trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated fall and then the next
strong support range would be at 22281—22165---21821---21710 and it could bounce back from
this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21137 or lower, which may please be
noted. The short-term bias seems up now, but
medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and
in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance
points would be at 23504---23611---23637.65---23644.80---23745----23893.70----24013-----24064----24138----24182---24317(figures
will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 23504 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will gain some strength , if it moves above
23611 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get good strength and may enhance the chances of extending the
up-move further, if it moves above 23637.65---23644.80 and sustain on the
closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025,if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will
get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely
to extend further and if it moves above the range of 24138----24182---24317 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate
and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get
good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong
up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75
& 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and
sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER
PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at
23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum
downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this
pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and fully negated if it moves above 24857.75 &
25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore
suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70
and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has crossed its recent top on the
line chart and it is above all its short term moving averages
on the daily chart, which is a positive
sign for the continuation of the up move, , but it is still below all the averages on the weekly & below few
on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on
the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most
importantly it is below all its long
term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and it is highly concerning
and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But four out of seven important
technical indicators are positive now and three indicators are in buy mode and huge
positive divergence
in one, but inching towards overbought zone in two and sell mode in one
indicator, therefore, it can still resume the up-move if it hold the range of 23341---23200 (range will change every day) may be with-in-between down move.. Please keep an eye on the price
action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum
indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone
and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in
overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore,
all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates
that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in
coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price
action for further directional indication.
IT
IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode
is on therefore buy on decline can be
tried at appropriate support point with strict stop loss , similarly short
trade can also be tried after reasonable rise at appropriate resistance points with strict stop losses for intraday corrective
gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is above its very short,
short & medium pullback threshold point of 22938---23127 & 23276 (figure
may change), sustained close it may help it to move-up further.
2. Four out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart
with buy signal in three and with huge positive divergence in one indicator.
3. It crossed its recent top on the
line chart.
4 It is above all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 23341----23284----23267----23250---23225---23200(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range will help
in extending the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42-----24047.39----23659.18---23432.90 (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
correction will deepen.
4. It is in the overbought zone on the daily
chart and one indicator in the sell mode.
5 It is below its long pullback
threshold point of 23611 (figure may change), sustained close
below this point will help it to extend down move.
6. It is below its most critical
points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please
note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in
the year 2025.
7. It is below all its long-term
moving averages therefore severely threatened the uptrend.
8. The price action was positive
today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23321---23230
with a stop loss of 23170 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky
affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23480----23520
with a stop loss of 23570. It could be a
risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
