CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49074.80---High—49373.45---Low—48906.05---Close—49210.55 on 3.2.2025.
Support:49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49459/49654.65/49688.80//49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 296.40 points. Please note that the stipulated time to fill the gap of 48319 is over today, therefore chances of filling the gap has receded for a while but it will fill the gap one day for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical
setup is weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it
is below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on
the cards in coming times. But the good thing is that its short term parameters
have improved on the daily chart as it
is above its short term pullback threshold point and above almost all its short
term moving averages also, but it slipped into short correction mode for its
recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 49498.48(figure may change), however moving down further if it
holds the range of 49138---48936(figures
may change every day) on the closing basis then it can still bounce back
and may resume the up-move but it will gain strength if it moves above the
range of 49336---49408---49498.48
for the continuation of the up-move and if it moves above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis then it may extend the up
move sharply. But break & sustained close below this range of 49138---48936 will weaken it and
up-move may end and it may start to move down and then moving down its most
important & critical support points could be at 47898.35---47844.15 &
47756. Please note that break
& sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below
this range can drag it down to 44500
levels or lower. The short-term
bias seems up now, but medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is
severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of
now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49654.65---49895---50209---50519---50546----50790----50841.90---50860.20----51108---51191-----51460(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49654.65 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and chances of
extending the up-move will immensely enhance , if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue
in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 51108---51191-----51460 and sustain on the closing basis then the
long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the
up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation
of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47
& 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It crossed its recent
top on the line chart and above almost all its short term moving average on
the daily chart, which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below all its
short term moving average on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart , it
is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages
on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily
chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term
uptrend. But four out of seven important
technical indicators have turned positive and in buy mode in three indicators
and positive divergence in one, but
inching towards overbought zone and one in sell mode, therefore, it can resume
the up-move if it hold the range of 49138---48936 (range will change every day) may be with-in-between down move. Please keep an eye on the price action for
further directional
indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore buy on decline can be tried at appropriate support point with strict stop loss , similarly short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise at appropriate resistance points with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains. For safe traders long trade can only be tried if it closes above 49655 and sustains, else avoid.
STRENGTH: -
1. Four out
of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal
in three & positive divergence in one.
2. It is
above its very short & short term pullback threshold point of 48271---
48748(figure may change), sustained close above these points will help it
to extend the up-move.
3 It is
above almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 49325---49138---49129---48964-----48939---48936(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.
4. It has
crossed its recent top on the line chart.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73---- (figure may change) and
if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other
important key correction threshold points are 49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)
4. Two out
of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal
and inching towards overbought zone.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
6. Its below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
7. It is below
its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
8. It is below
its medium & long term pullback threshold point of 49271 & 49408(figure
may change), sustained close below these points will help it to extend the down-move.
9. The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49093---48940 with a stop loss of 48735 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49580—49680 with
a stop loss of 49800 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop
loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
