CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50990.65--High—51026.10--Low—49987--Close—49922 on 6.1.2025.
Support:49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a flat note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a huge loss of 1056.80 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is already into deep corrective mode and the overall chart
setup is weak. Please note that it is decisively below the benchmark points of 50860.20 & 50841.90 now which is an
essential parameter to keep the hope alive of an up-move in the year 2025, and this is a very weak sign.
Furthermore it is below all the key support points now and most importantly it
is below all its long term moving averages therefore putting the long term
uptrend in jeopardy now. However the last crucial support range is between 49787.10 (it broke this mark intraday
today) & 49654.65 and if it does not bounce back from this range and
break & sustain below it on the closing basis then it can witness an
accelerated fall and if stays below it for longer period then the downside
correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. The short & medium term trend is down
and the long term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias
is hugely negative as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50182---50365---50493---50689---50841.90---50860.20----51052---51164---51481----51828----
(some figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 50182 and sustain on the closing basis
then there may be bleak chance that it can move-up, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on
the closing basis then it will raise reasonable hope that the up-move can
extend and if it moves above 51052---51164---51481
& 51828 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend
threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But
please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move
if it moves above 51925----52223-----52266---52666
& 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis
and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move
above 53370.43---53531.30 & 53888.30
and sustain on the closing basis.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart, which is a
very weak sign, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily &
weekly chart and below few on the monthly chart also, it is below all its
medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the
weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving
average also on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term
uptrend and it is highly concerning.
Furthermore all the important technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart and maximum indicators are in the
sell mode and negative divergence is also there, but the comforting thing is
that it is in slightly oversold zone, therefore it may have a relief rally
anytime but it is not likely to sustain and may fail and then it may resume the
down move again (it rallied on 2.1.2025 and falling for last two days). It is also important to mention here that the
price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above
further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to
keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it has triggered sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in slight oversold zone also. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 50860.20 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. it is
holding its most important bottom of 49654.65.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered
sell mode also.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93----50725.73 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points
then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold
points are 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change)
4 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51925----51504----51366-----51322-----51093---51011-50925(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move..
5. All the
seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal,
distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.
6. It is
below its short pullback threshold point of 51288.23(figure may change), sustained
close below this point may take it down.
7. The long
term uptrend is jeopardize as it is below all its long term moving averages.
8. Its below
its most critical points of 50860.20
& 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up
the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.
9. It is below
its long pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close below this point will help it to extend down move.
10. It has broken
its recent bottom on the line & bar chart.
11. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49755----49660 with a stop loss of 49500 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50500—50600 with
a stop loss of 50750 or can sell if it moves below 49650 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 49760.It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
