CNX-NIFTY
Open—24584.80—High—24624.10---Low---24303.45---Close-24336 on 17.12.2024.
Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a negative note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of
332.25 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is
not a good sign for a steady market.
It is important to mention here that the
wild movement it had on 13.12.2024 indicated that the top is already in
the place, therefore, till it moves above 24857.75 and sustain on the
closing basis the on-going up-move may end here and it may start to drift down and
today’s move almost confirmed that the up-move may have ended for now. Please
note that I have cautioned about it in my write-up for 16.12.2024. Furthermore it has closed below its immediate
key support point of 24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24450 which is a very
weak sign, however 24340.56 and then 24140.85 & 24131.10
is the last recent key support points for now and if it manages to hold these
points on the closing basis then there may be a slim chance of a bounce back,
else it may continue to go down further.
The chart setup has weakened, It has broken
its recent bottom on the line chart today, it has fallen below majority of its short
& medium moving averages on the
daily chart, below majority of short & few medium term moving average on
the weekly chart and most importantly below one long term moving averages on
the daily chart which is a very concerning. Furthermore few important technical
indicators are positive now and in buy mode and with positive divergence. But the
concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone and few indicators also
turned negative. Therefore all together the indicators are giving mixed signal and
price action has also not been consistently positive therefore it is suggested
to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication. It is into short & deep correction mode
now and the long term uptrend is also threatened today.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that if it holds 24140.85 & 24131.10 on the closing basis then there
is a slim chance of a bounce back, but it will get back into the strong
up-momentum track only once it moves above
24340.56---24450----24481.42----24537.60--- 24625.43---24753.15
& 24857.75 (some figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. But if it stays below these
points for a longer period of time on the closing basis then it may be heading
for a reasonable to sharp fall in coming days.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 24330-----24314-----24226-----24207-----24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23924----23893.70----23873.35----23805-----23684-----23565------23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). It can bounce back from any of these points, please note that
today it has slipped into short & deep correction mode for its recent rise
and threatened the long term uptrend as it closed below its threshold points
of 24625.43--- 24481.42 &
24458, break & sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10
will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break
& sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of an
up-move for good, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will
push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a
longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and
time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it
further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23684---23565(figure
will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily),
break & sustained close below the range of 23684---23565 may trigger
fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may
accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly
chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge
negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone. On the monthly chart it
is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together
indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not
yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks
and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional
indication.
IT
IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-
It has
slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is
sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24481.42, but long trade can also be tried near critical support
points for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it
has been threatened today.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Three out
of the seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart; the
buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is there.
4. It is way above its strong
& long pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure
may change).
5. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the
month of December-2024.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and
negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought
condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63---
24481.42----- (figures may
change). The other important correction threshold
points are at 24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these
points correction will deepen.
4. Two out of
seven important technical indicators are negative, stating overbought condition
and sell signal too.
5. The price action was weak today.
6. It has broken its recent bottom
on the line chart today.
7. It is below its deep correction
threshold point of 24481.42 for its
recent rise.
8. It is below its short pullback
threshold point of 24340.56(figure may
change).
9. It is below almost all its
short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range
for the day is between 24605----24594----24522----24486----24422----24314 (figure will change every
day), sustained
close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.
10. Four out of seven indicators
are negative now pointing overbought zone & sell mode.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24180----24140 with a
stop loss of 24050 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky
affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24500—24540
with a stop loss of 24630 or can sell if it moves below 24300
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24380. It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop
loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
