CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—53502.50--High—53738.90--Low—53335--Close—53581.35 on 16.12.2024.
Support:53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day flat with a meager loss of 2.45 points. Please note that the gap it created on 25.11.2024 is yet to be filled and the gap point is 51271. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility , which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup looks good for the continuation of the
up-move but the movement it had on 13.12.2024
had created a doubt that top is already in the place and therefore, till it
moves above 53888.30 and sustain on
the closing basis this up-move may end here for a while. However, as long as it
holds 53531.30 &53370.43 and thereafter 52920.42
& 52648 on the closing basis chance of up-move will be alive. Therefore
it is suggested to be fearful and cautious in the long trade till it closes
above 53888.30 and sustain because it could be a bull
trap.
The overall chart setup is good. It is above all its short,
medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart
which is a hugely positive sign for the continuation of the up-move and if it
sustain above the averages then the up-move is likely to extend. Furthermore almost
all the important technical indicators are
positive now on the daily chart and indicate that it is in the buy mode. The
concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone and with slight negative
divergence, but all the other
indicators are giving positive signal for continuation of the up-move but in
view of negative divergence some caution must be exercised. It is also
important to mention here that the price action has not been consistently positive
off late therefore it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further
directional indication. The long term uptrend is intact as of now.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if it holds 53531.30----53370.43---52920.42 & 52648(figure may
change) on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive and is
likely to extend it further. It
is looking good and if it moves above 53531.30---53644.50 & 53888.30(it is
already above 53531.30) and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest
its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond
it also. But if it stays below these
points for a longer period of time on the closing basis then the on-going
up-move may end for good for a while.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 53531.30----53370.43---53004----52920.42-----52749----52648-----52493----52455----52183----52100------52085-----52087.65----52055.60----51967----51832----51704-----51646----51380----51344----51013-----50891.64------50692----50617------50378------50057-------49654.65----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close
below 53531.30 will trigger first
weakness, break & sustained close below 53370.43 will push it into short correction mode for its recent
rise, break & sustained close below 52920.42
will push it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break &
sustained close below 52648 may put
the up-move in jeopardy and thereafter break & sustained close below each
point will weaken it, break & sustained close below 51704 will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained
close below 50891.64 may end the
possibility of the up move for a while, break & sustained close below 51013 may trigger fresh fall and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, but the
range of 50378----50057----49787----49654
is the last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain
below this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please
note that sustained close below 50057 may potentially end the long term uptrend
for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart indicators are giving mixed signal, it is in buy mode now, but there is huge negative divergence and in overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKERT NOW.;-
It is buying on decline market now till it holds 53531.30----53370.43----52920.42
& 52648(figure may change)
but short trade can also be attempted after a reasonable rise for intraday
corrective gain. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3 It is well
above its short & strong pullback threshold point of 52648 & 50891.64(figure
may change), sustained close above this point will help in extending the
up-move.
4. All the
important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal,
but in overbought zone and with slight negative divergence as of now.
5 It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 53456----53383----53218-----53004-----52749----52455----51344-----51013(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it
extend the up-move.
6. It is above
all its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----, 52920.42----52487.43--- 52098.30------51549.93---- 50725.73---- 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and
if it sustain above these points then it will help in extending the up-move.
7. It has
crossed its recent top on the line chart.
8. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart are in buy mode but in overbought
zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating
overbought condition and with huge negative divergence.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 53531----53370 if it hold this range
for some time, then with a stop loss
of 53200 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 53950---54000 with
a stop loss of 54150. It could be a risky trade but can be tried
for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
