CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52046.35--High—52331.10--Low—51774.05--Close—52207.50 on 25.11.2024.
Support:51996.65/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened with a huge up-gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a handsome gain of 1072.10 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4-5 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 51271 levels, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap someday, which may please be noted. It had a strong up-move today and long term threat has ended as it closed above its threshold point of 51291(figure will change daily) which is hugely positive. Please note that if it holds the range of 51877----51556---51405(figure will change daily) and then 51291 & 50891.64 levels on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to continue and the broad upside target could be 52355---52494----52578---52680----53363---53532, please note that it may correct at any of these point and then may resume the up-move again. But break & sustained close below 51291 & 50891.64 (figure may change) may derail the on-going up move.
The overall chart setup is still weak, but it showed some
sign of improvement, it is still into the deep correction mode, but today it
bounced back above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the
daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a hugely positive sign for the
continuation of the up-move and if it sustain above it the up-move is surely
going to extend. Furthermore all the important technical indicators have turned positive today on the daily chart and indicate
that it is in the buy mode with positive divergence. The only concerning thing
is that it is inching towards overbought zone. Therefore all together indicators are giving positive
signal, therefore it is likely to move ahead further in coming days provided it
holds the key points as mentioned above. The short & medium term
trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is intact now.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if it holds the range of 51877----51556---51405(figure
will change daily) and
then 51291 & 50891.44 the up-move is likely to extend, but break
and sustained close below 51291-& 50891.44 may derail the on-going
up-move. Please note that to give
thrust to the up-move it has to move above 52355---52494----52578 and sustain on the closing basis and for the
strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then
it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51610---51556----51405----51291---50956----50891.64----50632----50617-----50577-----50282----50199-----50261----50172-----49934----49847-----49654.65----49622----49520-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that break &
sustained close below the range of 51610---51556----51405
will be an alert sign, break & sustained close below 51291 will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained
close below 50891.64 may end the
possibility of the up move for a while, break & sustained close below 50577 may trigger fresh fall and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, but the
range of 49956----49549 is the last very
strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below this range on
the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please note that
sustained close below 49549 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the
time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.
BUY ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINT
& LONG TERM AVERAGE;-
It is into the deep correction mode but above its pullback threshold
point of 50891 and long term moving average of 51291 therefore
buy on decline is suggested at appropriate support points till it holds the
above points. But sell trade can also be tried after reasonable rise in the
appropriate range for intraday corrective gains. So both side trades can be
tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out of
seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating oversold
condition, in sell mode but not yet broken bottom on the indicator, which is slight
positive for it.
4 It is well
above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close above this point will help in extending the up-move.
5. It has
made higher top & bottom on the line chart again and higher top on the bar
chart..
6 The price action was positive today.
7. All the
seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy
signal, positive divergence but inching towards overbought zone.
8 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily & weekly chart and the important average range for day is between 51610----51556-----51405----51327----51244----51184(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it extend the up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit),
but in sell mode and with huge negative divergence & monthly chart,
indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43--- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 52098.30----52015.06---- 51549.93---- 51492.11 ---- 50725.73----
49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 52068------52000 with a stop loss of 51750 or can try long trade if it moves
above 52355 and maintain for some
time with a stop loss of 52030 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52700---52800 with
a stop loss of 52925 or can sell if it moves below 51770 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 52070. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
