CNX-NIFTY
Open—23488.45—High—23507.30---Low---23263.15---Close----23349.90 on 21.11.2024.
Support:23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:23350/23484.15/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23893.70/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and could not
move much higher and started slipping down and hit a low of 23263.15 for
the day and then recovered a bit, but finally ended the day with a loss of 168.60 points. As
expected the last days up-move did not lasted and it slipped down again, because
the technical setup is very weak. It is well below its crucial point of
23893.70 and below other few critical points too and if it sustains below it
then fall may accelerate and it is important to mention here that today it has
broken its last critical support range of 23430(figure will change every day)
-----23350 which is supposed to be a strong bounce back range and if it does
not bounce back above this range in a shortest possible time frame, then the fall may continue with in between
relief rallies and the next strong support range would be way below at
22794---22775. It is suggested to look for long trade only if it moves above
23430(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis or near
critical support point on the down move with strict stop loss only for pullback
gains.
The overall chart setup is terribly weak;
it is already into the deep correction mode. It is below all its short & medium term
moving averages on the daily chart, also below all short & few medium term
moving averages on the weekly chart & below some short term moving average on
the monthly chart also and most importantly it is also below all the long terms
moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is under potential
threat, which is very concerning. It is making lower top & bottom on the
line & bar chart again, furthermore all the important technical indicators are
negative and sell mode is on and positive divergence has also been negated on
the daily chart which indicates that further fall may be ahead in coming days
provided it does not bounce back above 23430(figure
will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis. The
short & medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is potentially
under threat and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 23430----23466----23540----23583----23662—23701---24087---24201
& 24329(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON
THE DAILY CHART:-
It has decisively broken the neckline
today which is placed at 24753.15 and if it sustains below it then the maximum
downside could be in the range of 23200---23100. Please note that if it bounce
back above 24753.15 and sustain then this pattern will be negated and it may
resume the strong uptrend. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 3338.70---23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it is below its key & crucial support
point of 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis for a longer
period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and
time-wise both. Furthermore today it has closed below its last critical strong
support range of 23430----23350, which is hugely
concerning and the long term uptrend is potentially threatened and now moving
down the next strong support range would be at 22794---22775.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that to give a ray of hope to regain up movement again it has to move
above the range of its critical points of 23430----23466----23563.92---23893.70----23974.50----24160---24329(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, if it moves above 23430 & 23466 and sustain on the
closing basis then it will be an reasonable indication that it may move up, if
it moves above 23563.92(weak pullback
threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may have a feeble
up-move, the decider point is 23893.70
if it moves and sustain above it on the closing basis then it could somewhat
ensure that the up-move can extend further, if it moves above 23974.50(strong
pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it will make sure that the up-move can extend further
for sure, if it moves above 24160
and sustain on the closing basis it will strengthen it further, if it moves
above 24330
and
sustain on the closing basis, then it
will end the long term uptrend threat and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing
basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may resume
the big up-move too. But to gain a strong foothold for the continuation of the
up move it has to move above the range of 24632---24704---24803----24962(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25566
& 25675(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it may
gain extraordinary strength and will get into the good up momentum track and
then it may retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is
having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good
sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the monthly chart is still present, but on the daily & weekly chart it is in the oversold zone now, sell mode and positive divergence negated, therefore
it has to be seen how it pans out in the next few trading sessions because the overall technical setup is still very
weak on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the weekly & monthly chart and sell
mode is also there on the weekly chart, so all together these
developments are painting a mix picture but tilted towards weakness, so keep a
watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is
hugely bearish. So further fall is very much on the horizon in coming days..
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is
into the correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general
till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction
completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price
action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend
is threatened.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. One out
of seven important technical indicators suggest oversold condition, so it may
have a relief rally anytime soon.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Six out of seven important technical indicators on the
daily chart are negative, indicating oversold condition, sell signal triggered ,
almost all indicators on the weekly chart are also negative indicates oversold condition,
sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34--24047.39----23659.18--- (figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4. It is below all its short
& medium-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for the day is between 23640---23734----23888----24060----24160----24632---24704---24803---24962 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
5. It is below its strong
pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure
may change).
6. It has potentially threatened
the long term uptrend as it is below all its important threshold point of 23430----23466----23540----23583----23662—23701---24087---24201
& 24329(figure will change daily) on the daily
chart.
7. It is making lower to & bottom on the line
& bar chart both..
8. The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23288---23265 with
a stop loss of 23180 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet
but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday
gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23650—23700
with a stop loss of 23760 or can sell near 23430 if it does
not move above this mark intraday with a stop loss of 23530. It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses.
Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss
points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
