CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50625--High—50652.15--Low—49787.10--Close—50372.90 on 21.11.2024.
Support:50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:50382.10/50438.30/50865.45/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51750.10/51996.65/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a flat note and could not move much higher and
started slipping down and hit a low of 49787.10
for the day and then smartly recovered but finally ended the day with a loss of
253.60
points. The overall chart setup is weak; it is still into the deep correction
mode, It is below all its short & medium term moving averages on the daily chart
and also below all its short term & few medium term moving average on the weekly
chart and below few short term moving average on the monthly chart too and most
importantly it is below few long term
moving average also, it is making lower top & bottom on the line chart and
finally almost all important technical
indicators are negative on the daily chart and in the sell mode, but in slight
oversold condition. Therefore all development together are concerning and
indicates further fall may be ahead in the coming days. Please note that to
give a hope of moving up it has to move above the range of 50445.53----50601----50891.64----50915----51259(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else it will keep going down
with in between relief rallies. But going down it has strong bed of support in
the range of 50251-----50147 and then 49922----49496(figure will
change daily), particularly the range of 49922----49496 is supposed
to be a very strong bounce back range (it
bounced back within this range today) but if it breaks this range and
sustain on the closing basis then it may have free fall. The short & medium term
trend is bearish and it has threatened the long term uptrend and the threat
will only dissipate once it moves above 50601---50920 & 51259(figure will
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that to give a ray of hope for a continued up
move it has to move above 50445.53----50891.64 & 51259 (figure may change)
and sustain on the closing basis, if it moves above 50445.53(weak pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may
have feeble up-move, if it moves above 50891.64(strong
pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may
somewhat ensure the up-move can extend for sure and if it moves above 51259 and sustain on the closing basis
then it will end the long term uptrend threat and it may have smooth up-move.
Please note that to get reasonable strength for the up-move to continue it has
to move above the range of 50871-----51113----51170----51299----51496----51694(figure
may change), to gain a
strong foothold and to give thrust to the up-move it has to move above 52355---52494----52578 and sustain on the closing basis and for the
strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30
& 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then
it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50251----50147-----49922----49823-----49654.65----49613----49496-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that sustained close
below 50617 can drag it down to 49654.65 or lower levels. Please note
that break & close below each point will weaken it but the range of 49922----49496 is the last very strong
bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below this range on the
closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. It has already threatened
the long term uptrend as it is below its main threshold point of 51259, break
and sustained close below 49496 may potentially end the long term uptrend for
the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756
and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful
price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now it has oversold condition , in sell mode but slight positive divergence on the daily chart, so it may have an up-move again if does not break its key points on the downside. It is in the sell mode, huge negative divergence but oversold condition on the weekly chart and on the monthly chart it is still overbought and with negative divergence, therefore all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing towards weakness and it could head down further and may seek lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies because technical parameters and chart setup is weak. So keep watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is weak.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend it threatened.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating oversold condition, in sell mode but not yet broken bottom on the indicator, which is slight positive for it.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Five out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative, slight positive divergence,
in the oversold/neutral zone and in the sell mode. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit), but in sell mode and
with huge negative divergence & monthly chart, indicating overbought
condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----51492.11
----50725.73---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4. It slipped
into correction mode for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold
point of 52015.06(figure may change).
5 It is well
below its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained
close below the above point may witness an accelerated fall.
6. It has
made lower top & bottom on the line chart again.
7 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 50695---50871----51047---51113---51170---51299—51496----51694(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it
down further.
8 The price action was weak today
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50180------50160 with a stop loss of 50000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50750---50850 with
a stop loss of 50950 or can sell if it moves below 50050 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 50200. It could
be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses.
Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss
points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
