CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51550.15--High—51825.50--Low—51459.40--Close—51673.90 on 1.11.2024.
Support:51354.85/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51750.10/51996.65/52199.45/52340.25/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 198.55
points. The overall chart setup is still weak, it is still into the deep correction mode for its earlier
rise and also into corrective mode for
its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change), amid volatility it has again bounced
back above almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart but
still below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart and also below few
medium term moving averages on the daily chart, it has again given upside
breakout from its down trend line, it has made higher top & bottom on the
line chart all developments together is a positive sign. Furthermore few important technical indicators have turned positive and
triggered buy signal also, therefore all together it is painting a mixed picture as of now,
therefore it has to be seen how it pans-out in the next 2-3 trading
sessions. The short & medium term bias is down, but the long term
uptrend is still intact.
It
is important to mention here that to keep the up momentum going in the month of
November-2024, it has to maintain above 51550.15---51475.35----51202.74---51064(some
figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, then the up-move can
extend, else it may lose the steam and start moving down.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE
UPSIDE:-
Please note that if It holds the
range 51609---51550.15----51475.15---51202.74 & 51064 (figure may change)
on the closing basis then it can extend the up-move but break & sustained
close below this range and particularly below 51202.74 & 51064 it
may end the possibility of an up-move for a while. Please note that if it
sustains above 51202.74 on the closing basis then the broad upside
target could be 51739-----51827---52059-----52138---52331----52577----52835----53459---53613 it can correct at any of these points and then
may resume the up-move again or up-move can fizzle out for good also. Please
note that to gain a strong foothold again it has to move above the range of 51686---51724---51868---52015.06---52263---52367---52487.43(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis, for strong strength
for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30----53556(figure
may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong
up momentum track if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.
POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51609----51563----51471----51251-----51202.74------51064-----50817----50740-----50725.76----50617------50510-----50421---50081----49836-----49767----49654.65------49511-----49462----49201.72-----49185-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below 51202.74
& 51064 may end the possibility of a continued up –move for the time
being. But please note that the range of 51064----50817----50740-----50725----50617---50510-----50421
and then 50081----49817----49836---49767-----49654.65----49511---49462----49185(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, break & sustained close below 51064 will
threaten the long term uptrend and thereafter break & close below each
point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below 49185 may
potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it
break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both, which may please be noted.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now the oversold/ neutral condition on the daily& weekly chart but overbought condition persist on the monthly, some indicators triggered buy signal also but the few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily, weekly and monthly chart , so all together these developments are painting a mixed picture now , so watch out for the next 2-3 days how it pans out eventually. But all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down and may seek much lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies after this on-going rally finally ends and the break and sustain close below 51202.74 &51064(figure may change) will possibly end the rally, else chances of up-move will be alive.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-
It is into the deep correction
mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the
correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive
traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday
gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still
in the long-term uptrend; break below 51064 will threaten the long term
uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. It is
above its weak & strong pullback threshold point of 50900.11 & 51202.74(figure
may change) respectively, price above these points may help it extend the
up-move.
4. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, but triggered buy signal.
5. It l has
made higher top & bottom on the line chart.
6 It is above
almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51471---51531---51563----51573---51609---51686(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it
to extend the rally.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Five out
seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence,
in the overbought/neutral zone, but buy signal is on. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It is
into deep correction mode as it is below
some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06
(figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at ----51549.93----51492.11 ----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
4. It slipped
into correction mode for its recent rise as it closed above its threshold point
of 52015.06(figure may change).
5 The price action was mixed today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51550----51475 if it sustain this range
for a while with a stop loss of 51180 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be
tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52000---52100 with
a stop loss of 52250 or can sell below 51470 with a stop loss of 51700.
It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
