CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—52314.45--High—52582.95--Low—51683.40--Close—51845.20
on 3.10.2024.
Support:51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with a big down gap and thereafter had restricted
up move and then steadily went down and finally ended the day with a colossal
loss of 1077.40
points. The gap it created on 3.10.2024 and on 30.9.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the respective
gaps in 4-5 & 2-3 trading
sessions, which is technically possible then it could come up to 52817.80 & 53763.20 levels but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated
time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it
will surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted. The chart setup
has terribly weakened, it is into the correction mode as it is below its
correction threshold points and some other key points of 53636.71-----53500.30----53496----53357.70---53331.55—53291----53026----52690-----52560------52487.43----52098.30 (figures may change) which is a weak sign. Furthermore it also
below all its short term moving averages and below few medium term moving
averages also and all important technical indicators are negative now, so all developments together indicates that
further fall may be ahead, therefore if it does not bounce back above the
aforesaid range or above some of
the critical points and sustain on the closing basis in the shortest
possible time, then it may witness an accelerated fall from here. It is important to mention here that if it closes above 52340.41 (figure
may change) and sustain then there will be some hope that it can extend the up
move, if it closes above 52487.43 it will gain a strong foothold, if it moves above
the range of 53026----53331.55---53357.70----53496(figure may change) and
sustain it may gain good strength for the up move but it will get into the good
up momentum track only once it closes above 53636.71(figure may change) and
sustain.
It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but on the daily chart it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a short rally, most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily& weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode triggered on the daily chart all these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down and the process is on and it may slide further, so keep an eye on for the positive price action for the possible up rally. It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but the short term bias is bearish..
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 51778----51652-----51549.93----51493----51337----51263----51189----50790----50725.76----50688----50587----50550-----50247-----49769----49654------49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It slipped into the correction mode
today as it closed below its correction threshold points and other key points of 53636.71-----53500.30----53496----53357.70---53331.55—53291----53026----52690-----52560------52487.43----52098.30 figures may change) which is a
very weak sign and if sustain below this range it may witness an
accelerated fall and thereafter close below each point will weaken it
further. Please note that the range of 50688----50587----50550-----50247----49769----49654(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but
sustained break and close below the range of 50688----50587----50550 will
threaten the long term uptrend and break and sustained close below the range of
50247----49769----49654 may accelerate the fall further.
It is into the correction mode therefore
it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode,
but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday
gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE NOW, THEREFORE FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG
TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 52340.41 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAIN, HOWEVER AGGRESSIVE
TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE NEAR CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT STOP LOSS
FOR PULLBACK GAINS . IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW, BUT SHORT TERM BIAS IS BEARISH.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 50587 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. All the
seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode
,given negative divergence ,but slightly oversold ,so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further. Indicators(few) on the weekly & monthly
chart, indicating overbought condition and sell signal and negative divergence.
3 The price action was weak today.
4. It has already
broken its recent bottom of 53968.60 on the line chart.
5. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30 (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at ---51549.93----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction
will deepen.
6. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 53496---53291---53026----53021----52690----52560(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51250----51000 with a stop loss of 50850 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52350---52450 with
a stop loss of 52600 or can sell if it moves below 51620 with a
stop loss of 51850 It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
