CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50417.25--High—51025.60--Low—50398.60---Close—50803.15 on 20.8.2024.
Support:50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:50830.70/51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter it steadily moved
up during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 434.80 points. The
stipulated time for filling the gap of 5.8.2024
has ended on 12.8.2024 but it will
surely fill the gap one day (gap figure
is -51087.85), which please keep in mind. As expected it had a good
positive day today and the
technical setup has improved a bit , as it closed well above its pullback
threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), it also moved above all of its short term
moving averages on the daily chart and most of the important technical
indicators are positive now on the daily chart, it has made higher top &
bottom on the line chart and higher top on the bar chart, so all together it
indicates positive outlook as of now for the continuation of the up move. But
please note that the volatility is still there and the overbought
condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also present but it has
neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it seems that it may
go down further may be after some time with in- between relief rallies. It is
already into deep correction mode for its recent rise and also into correction
for the earlier rise; furthermore, it is still below few of its short-term
moving averages on the weekly chart and also below few medium-term moving
averages on the daily chart, some important technical indicators are negative
on the weekly & monthly chart, pointing that it could head down again after
this up move is over. Please note that it can extend the up move if it could manage
to hold the range of 50753---50529---50289(some
figure may change) on the closing basis
and if it moves above 51566 &
51639.66(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis then it can get into good up momentum track again.
Moving up from here its broad resistance points(for in
between resistance points see the resistance table above) could be at 50997----51070---51314----51506-----51523----51639.66----51706----51803----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves above 51523 & 51639.66 and sustain on
the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again and
thereafter crossing each point will strengthen the up move and finally if it
moves above 52618 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest
its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it also and hit a new
high.
Similarly moving down from here it may find good support at 50753---50681----50529--- 50289—49717.78----49654----49530----49521----49457------49151---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, break & close below 50753 may trigger fall, but if it holds
50529 & 50289 on the closing basis then the chance of up move will be alive,
thereafter break below each point will weaken the setup. Please note that the range of 49654---49521----49457-----49151 is a
very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below 49654
will trigger fresh fall, break and sustained close below 49521 will threaten the long term uptrend and
finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25
&48203.45
will trigger fresh fall again and that could be sharp in the intensity and then
the correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained
close below 47533.83 can drag
it down to 46077 or lower.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra
alert in the long trade.
NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 50753---50529---50289 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP MOVE CAN
EXTEND. THE LONG-TERM UPTREND IS INTACT AS OF NOW. BUT SHORT-TERM TREND IS
BEARISH NOW BUT IMPROVED A BIT.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend now, but break below 49521 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note
that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum
going in the year 2024.
3. Five out
of seven indicators are positive now, pointing that it could extend the up move
and indicate that it could head to 51600 levels.
4. The price action was positive today.
5. It is well
above its pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure can change), if it holds above, it on the closing basis
then it may continue the up-move.
6. It still
has made higher top & bottom on the line after a long time & higher top
on the bar chart.
7. It is above all of its short-term moving averages
now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 50753---50746----50504----50467----50324---50233(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend
the up move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it
is below almost all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53 (figure may change), the other correction threshold points
are 50702.16
& 49878.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Two out
of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on
decline near or within the range of 50750----50650 with a stop loss of 50475 or if it moves above 50831 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 50600 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried
near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51400---51500 with
a stop loss of 51650 or can sell if it moves below 50380 and stay for some time with a stop loss of 50550 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
