2 2 2
CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—47927.10--High—48259.75--Low—47927.10---Close—48048.20
on 21.5.2024.
Support: 47737.20/47313.35/47279.80/46919.70/46579.05/46529.05/45828.80.
Resistance:48161.25/48203.45/48292.25/48636.45/ 49057.80/49173.36/49262/49396.75/49446.69/49676/49732/49883/49974.75.
It opened on a negative note and the open was the low
of the day also and thereafter it moved up and hit day’s high of 48259.75 but could not sustain and slipped
down from there and finally ended the day
with a loss of 151.30 points. It is still into correction mode for its earlier
rise and below some of its most critical points as mentioned below (see
weakness point no-2), but as long as it holds its correction threshold
point of 47958.50(figure may change) for its recent rise and its
pullback threshold point of 47689.25(figure may change) chances of
continuation of the up move will be alive, else it may head down again.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend as of now. But break below 46992 will threaten the
uptrend.
2. The short
range for it now is between 49974.75---47737.20 and the long range is
between 49974.75----46913----46579.05.
3. It is
above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25(figure may change) and if
it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend further and
the possible upside target or resistance points could be at 48126---48203---48292---48479---48636.45—48832---49269----49377.
4. Moving
down the possible good bounce back point could be at 47958.50---47737.20---47689.25----47380---47258---46972---46579.05(figure
may change), break below 47958.50 will push it into correction mode for
its very recent rise, break below 47689.25 may end the on- going
up move, sustained break below 46992
will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below
46579.05 could be a warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower
levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction more painful time
wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 46992 &46579.05 is
a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make
or break point or benchmark point.
5. It has
made short higher top and bottom on the line chart now.
6. The price
action has been mixed for the last few days.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is into
deep correction mode now for its earlier rise and it will get out of it, if it
moves above 49173.36 & 49446.69 and sustain on the closing basis.
2. It is below
its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 &48636.45, please
note that it is must to stay above these point to keep up the up momentum going
in the year 2024.It will catch up momentum above 48636.45 only.
3. It is
below some of its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the
important average range is between 48293---48131---48070(figures
will change every day), sustained close above this range may provide good
strength and an impetus to move up.
4. Technical
indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it
could head down to much lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.
5. Volatility
can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady
market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
OVERALL VIEW: -- It is still into the correction mode
for its
earlier gains but the pullback mode is also on and the technical setup has also
improved a bit. Please note that if it manages to hold its critical point of 47958.50
&47689.25 on the closing basis then the up move can extend with intermittent
correction, else it will drift down. It is important to mention here that it
will get into strong up momentum only if it moves above 48203.45---48292.25
&48636.45 and sustains on the closing basis. Since it is in correction
mode and the pullback mode is also on therefore both side trades can be
attempted depending on the price action. But please note that both side trades amid
volatility and in a corrective market could be a risky affair, so be alert and
watchful in your trades. The long term trend is up, but the short term bias is mixed
as of now.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near
or within the range of 47960----47900 with a stop loss of 47800
or if it moves above 48131 and maintain for some time with a stop loss
of 48000.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48300 —48400 with
a stop loss of 48500 or can sell below 47650 with a stop loss of 47820.
It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
