CNX-NIFTY
Open-21861.50-High—22179.55—Low—21777.65--Close-22147
on 19.4.2024.
Support: 22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.
Resistance: 22180.70/22234.35/22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.
(Bold
and underlined figures are most important)
After 4 days of
fall in a row, it opened on a negative note and below its important support
range of 21962---21913 but did not went near its last crucial and
important support point of 21710.20 and sharply bounced back from 21777.65
levels and finally ended the day near the high of
the day with a gain of 151.15 points. It also closed above its pullback
threshold point of 22013.19, which is positive sign and if it sustains
above it on the closing basis then the up move can extend, else it may start to
move down again. Please note that the gap it
created on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill
this gap in the next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible
then it can move up to 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within
the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time
being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind.
The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and
eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down
move is on. Please note that other parameters has also weakened further, therefore
if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move
above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further it did
stage a sharp bounce back today but the other parameters are still weak. So
watch out. It is important to mention
here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly
chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap
someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.
Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22224.35-----22283----22287----22297.50----22300----22303.80---22350----22354---22363.12-----22389------22395----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568-----22576.09---22619----22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and
for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at
the top.
Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the
up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that
sustained close above the range of 22287----22300 & 22354 will
provide it good strength for continuation of the up move, sustained close above
22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track and finally sustained
close above 22576.09 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its
all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also.
Similarly moving down from here the broad important
support points could be at 22126.80---22013.19----21962---21923----21913----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures
may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support
table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points.
It is already into deep correction mode, break below 22126.80 will be an
alert sign but if it manages to hold 22013.19(pullback threshold point)
on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, it has very
strong support in the range of 21962---21913 therefore it is expected to
bounce back from here but sustained break below the range will open up the
possibility to drag it down to 21710.20 levels or much below(it tried it
today but bounced back), break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20
may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most
crucial , key and last important support point is 21710.20 and sustained break
below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be deep & painful time and value-wise both.
It is important to mention here that all the
five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily
chart, which is weak sign and indicates further down move may be ahead. Furthermore
three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly
chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months
and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as
moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some
of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart and some below
on the weekly chart also after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the
line and bar chart after a long time, therefore all together it is indicating
extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue
in coming days with in between short relief rallies. It staged a sharp bounce
back rally today which seems to be a normal up move after 4 days of
massive fall, therefore it has to be seen over next 2-3 days that how
today’s up move shape up or may end abruptly. But as long as it holds 22013.19
on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive It is in the long-term
uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades
can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but they have
to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- TODAYS UP MOVE WAS A NORMAL PULLBACK RALLY AFTER 4 DAYS OF FALL, IT
SEEMS THAT THE UP MOVE WAS BECAUSE OF SHORT COVERING AND IT MAY NOT LAST AND
CAN END ABRUPTLY, THEREFORE HOW THIS UP MOVE WILL SHAPE UP FURTHER HAS TO BE
SEEN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS. HOWEVER, SAFE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG
TRADE ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS 22013.19 ON THE CLOSING BASIS, BUT AGGRESSIVE
TRADERS CAN ALSO TRY LONG TRADE NEAR
21923 BUT NOT BELOW IT AND THEN NEAR OR WITHIN THE RANGE OF
21731---21710 BUT NOT BELOW IT.
TRADING TIPS: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within
the range of 22046---22015 and not below it with a stop loss of 21970.
Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but
can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with
strict stop loss.
2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short
trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short
correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the
reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with
extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within
the range of 22290--- 22355 with a stop loss of 22410 or sell
below 21970 with a stop loss of 22050 It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author
and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you
enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the
price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and
resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO
NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
