A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—9.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45973.85--High—46181.20--Low—44893.75---Close—45012 on 8.2.2024.

Support: 44710.55/44949.90/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance:45071.20/ 45430.20/45655.50/46310.10/46369.50/46580.30/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up further but could not sustain and then started slipping down and finally ended the day with a loss of 806.50 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often and it happened today also, which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already in the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, furthermore it has decisively closed below its long term moving average upper band of the range, which is placed at 45621(figure will change every day) for the day, which is highly concerning and break below its lower band of the range, which is placed at 44420(figure may change) will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and the continuation of the up move will be in jeopardy. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45365.42 & 45421.96(figure may change) and today it decisively closed below both the points which is a terribly weak sign. Please note that sustained close above these points will give a hope of a meaningful up move or continuation of the up move, else down move may continue.  

It is important to mention here that with today’s move four out of five important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may continue to go down further in the coming days. Furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is weak, it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart, it is below all of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below medium term moving averages on the daily chart and few below on the weekly chart also and most importantly below the upper band of the long term moving average range ,therefore all together the situation is highly concerning and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible and move above the few important points as mentioned above and sustain then the further fall looks inevitable and intensity could be high. Please note that it is a sell on the rise market now till it closes above some key points as mentioned above or visible correction completion sign emerges. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45010.35---44949.50---44921----44746.91---44607----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45251---45343.83---45370---45421.96--45505----45661-----45759----45910-----45951.35---46072----46150----46367---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- PLEASE NOTE THAT TO GIVE SOME HOPE OF A MEANINGFUL UP MOVE IT HAS TO MOVE AND SUSTAIN  ABOVE 45365.42---45421.96 & 45621(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS,ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. it is suggested that safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 45421.96  and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 44550---44450 with a stop loss of 44350.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the  deep long corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45550---45650 with a stop loss of 45750 or sell if remains below 45071 for some time with a stop loss of 45225 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—8.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22045.05--High—22053.30—Low—21860.80--Close-21930.50 on 7.2.2024.

Support: 21926.76/21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/ 21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/21676.90/21658.75/21593/21500.35/21492.90/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22124.15/22128.80/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened with an up gap but could not move much further and traded in a range for a while then started slipping down and in the process filled the gap also and finally ended the day flat with a meager gain of 1.10 points. It is exhibiting huge volatility in fact having a see-saw movement quite often, it happened today also which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

 Kindly note that to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its  most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis and it is way above all the points and as long as it hold these points up move may continue with intermittent down move, but break below these points may trigger fall and break below 21667(figure will change every day) may accelerate the fall, but as long as it holds its pullback threshold points of 21370.12 & 21282  (figure may change) chances of up move will always be alive, which may be kept in mind.

The chart setup is good, and it is out of all corrective mode and most importantly above its important point of 21926.76 and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22126.80 or may go beyond it also and then the further upside target could be 22220----22392.60---22459. Similarly moving down from here it may find possible support at 21926.76----21893.25---21748.77----21731.40----21727.75-----21632---21515.23---21370.12—21335.15---21282—21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but sustained break below 21893.25 will push it into short correction mode and then break below each point will weaken it further. 

It is very important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and indicates that it could continue the up move in the coming days. But one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative which is slightly concerning. But the overall chart setup is ok as of now, therefore if it manages to hold its critical and key points as mentioned above on the closing basis then the up momentum can continue. But I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its toll sooner or later and it may sharply head down. So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- FOR CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 21926.76---21893.25---21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY TRIGGER FALL AND BREAK BELOW 21667 MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 &21282 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21800---21770 with a stop loss of 21700 or if it holds 21927 for some time with a stop loss of 21850.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22125--- 22150 with a stop loss of 22200.  It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com