A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—9.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45973.85--High—46181.20--Low—44893.75---Close—45012 on 8.2.2024.

Support: 44710.55/44949.90/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance:45071.20/ 45430.20/45655.50/46310.10/46369.50/46580.30/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up further but could not sustain and then started slipping down and finally ended the day with a loss of 806.50 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often and it happened today also, which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already in the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, furthermore it has decisively closed below its long term moving average upper band of the range, which is placed at 45621(figure will change every day) for the day, which is highly concerning and break below its lower band of the range, which is placed at 44420(figure may change) will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and the continuation of the up move will be in jeopardy. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45365.42 & 45421.96(figure may change) and today it decisively closed below both the points which is a terribly weak sign. Please note that sustained close above these points will give a hope of a meaningful up move or continuation of the up move, else down move may continue.  

It is important to mention here that with today’s move four out of five important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may continue to go down further in the coming days. Furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is weak, it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart, it is below all of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below medium term moving averages on the daily chart and few below on the weekly chart also and most importantly below the upper band of the long term moving average range ,therefore all together the situation is highly concerning and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible and move above the few important points as mentioned above and sustain then the further fall looks inevitable and intensity could be high. Please note that it is a sell on the rise market now till it closes above some key points as mentioned above or visible correction completion sign emerges. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45010.35---44949.50---44921----44746.91---44607----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45251---45343.83---45370---45421.96--45505----45661-----45759----45910-----45951.35---46072----46150----46367---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- PLEASE NOTE THAT TO GIVE SOME HOPE OF A MEANINGFUL UP MOVE IT HAS TO MOVE AND SUSTAIN  ABOVE 45365.42---45421.96 & 45621(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS,ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. it is suggested that safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 45421.96  and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 44550---44450 with a stop loss of 44350.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the  deep long corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45550---45650 with a stop loss of 45750 or sell if remains below 45071 for some time with a stop loss of 45225 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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