Open—14737--High—14779.10—Low—14573.90---Close-14683.50
on 6.4.2021.
Support:14653.35/14635.05/14540/14467.75/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14753.55/14883.20/14977.20/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It is exhibiting huge volatility, it closed on a reasonable
note at 14867.35 on 1.4.2021 but on 5.4.2021 it plunged down sharply and hit a low of 14459.50 but recovered to close at 14637.80. Today also it had a wild
swing both ways but it managed to close on a positive note with a gain of 45.70
points. It is still on a weak technical footing and needs to cross the key
points mentioned below and sustain on the closing basis to get into the up
grove again. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11
& 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds
these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points
are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is well below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and not moving
above it which is slightly concerning, sustained break below 14336.34
can push it into medium term correction mode, which could last even longer
and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48
on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will
potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will
further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.
It is into deep short term correction mode. Furthermore it
has moved below its short and medium term moving averages again and still below
some of its long term technical parameters, which is concerning. However it is
well above its pullback threshold point of 14540(figure
can change) so, as long as it hold this level chances are that it could
move up in coming days. Going up it will face resistance at-14753.55---14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the on-going up move is a pullback rally and it can fizzle
out at any of these points, but if it closes above 14888.80 at least and sustain then chances are that it could
move further and if it moves and sustain above 15198.30 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time
high of 15431.75 or may go beyond
also, chances of crossing 15198.30 level
looks slim at this point of time. Similarly going
down it can find support at-14848---14755.53---14710---14653---14540---14467.75---14350---14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup still looks weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term bias is
still up.
In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term
correction but above pullback threshold point of 14540 therefore for safe trader long trade in general should be
avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. However the
traders who wish to take advantage of the pullback rally can try long trade if
it moves and maintain above 14700
for some time or on decline but not below 14637.
Please note that long trade in deep
corrective mode and for pullback gains could be risky propositions, particularly
buying on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode therefore short trade can also be attempted
after reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the
down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be
tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup
still seems o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near near14637 but not below it, with a stop
loss 14565. It could be a risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and maintain above 14700for some time with a
stop loss of 14630. It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14800---14860
with a stop loss of 14910. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a
corrective market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14637 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14685. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
