CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51527.90---High—51624.50--Low—50105.25---Close—50275.35 on 30.3.2026.
Support:50194.30/49974.75/49787.10/49654.65/49156.95/48636.45/47898.35/47702.90/46983.25/46579.05/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44859.15/44866.15/44429/43600.35.
Resistance:50369.40/50865.45/51693.95/52063.65/52577.50/52782.75/53357.70/53483.05/53561,75/53888.30/54176.45/54226.60/54442.30/54467.35/54576.60/54905.60/55149.30/55475.45/55821/56098.70/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57157.85/57482.05/57594.25/57628.40/57783.20/58050/58121.60/58649.50/58712.70/58737.60/58799.90/58864.20/58925.70/59581.85/59674.80/59806.60/60060.70/60114.30/60235.15/60473.20/60980/61099/61232/61342/61764.85/61998/62078/62251/62382/62427/63091.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with a down gap and thereafter and had both side moves in the lower trajectory during the day and finally ended the day with a colossal loss of 1999.25 points. The gap it created on 30.3.2026 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in next 4-5 days, which is technically possible then it can come up to 52211.20, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but please note that one day it will surely fill the gap one day. It is also important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 60438.95,58687.05, 57696.40, 54689.1051361, 51244 & 50496), which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility and it is not a good sign for a steady market.
It is important to mention here that the technical setup is extremely
weak and it is sell on the rise market but despite severe fall today RSI still
has distinct positive divergence on the daily chart, but generally it does not
work in isolation but at the same time you cannot ignore it also, therefore it
may have sharp relief rallies at times, so be watchful. In view of this it is
suggested to initiate fresh short trade only if it sustains below 50105.25 or
after a reasonable rise near important resistance points with proper stop
losses. Similarly aggressive traders can also try long trade based on above
point with proper stop loss, but in this market it could be a risky affair.
The technical setup is weak ,as it is into deep corrective mode, making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, below short & major long term rising trend lines, below all of its short term moving average on the daily ,weekly & monthly chart, below all of its medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart, below few on the monthly chart also and most importantly below all of its long term moving averages on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart, thereby potentially threatened the long term uptrend, so all together it is highly concerning and can drag it down further. However moving down if it manages to hold the support points of 49559----49215.55----49156.95 (some figures may change) on the closing basis then the chances of a bounce back may be there but it will resume the steady up-move is doubtful at this point of time. It is into deep correction mode therefore break below each point will weaken it further, but break & sustained close below 49215.55 may trigger fresh fall again and can drag it down to 46077 level or lower and on way to this it may find support in the range of 49013---48832---48349---48127—47702.90----47629----, it may bounce back from any of these points and may try for an-up-move, but break below each point will weaken it and finally break & sustained close below 47629 may witness an accelerated fall, which may please be noted.
Moving up the broad resistance points
could be at 50369.40—50515.19---50865.45---51218---51391.19(P)---51678---51693.95---51920---52063.65---52577.50---52648---52782.75---52856.92(P)---53357.70---53483.05---53561.75---54226.60---54560-----55139---55149.90—---55203------55267----55936----56545---56622-----57157.85---57311----57783.20-------58220---------59014-----59581.85--59674.80----59433------60114.30------60473.20 (some
figures may change daily or at some point of time and for in between resistance
point see table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move
again or may halt the up-move for a while. Please note that it is into
deep corrective mode, but if it moves above the range of 51218---51391.19(P)and sustain on the closing
basis then there may be a faint chance that it can move-up further, if it moves
above the range of 52648---52782.75---52856.92(P) and sustain on the
closing basis then it may enhance the chances of an up-move, if it move above the range of 53483.05---53561.75 and sustain on the closing basis then it
may get a short foothold and may extend the up-move, if it moves above 54226.60 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may raise some hope for
extending the up-move further, if it moves above the range of 55139----55203 then
it may further enhance the chance of extending the up-move, if it moves above 55267 and sustain on the closing basis then it may give
some strength to move up further, if it moves above the range of 56622-----57157.85
and sustain on the closing basis then it may get a reasonable
foothold and may further raise hope for
extending the up-move, if it moves above
57783.20 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may get strong foothold and some momentum
and can extend the up-move further for sure, if it moves above 58220 and
sustain on the closing basis then the long term threat will dissipate and it
may get strength to move up further for sure, if it moves above 59432.93
and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest it’s all time high of 61764.85
or may go beyond it also. But it is important to mention here that to keep the hope alive for an extension
of the up-move in the year-2026, it has to move above the range of 59581.85---59674.80 and sustain on the closing basis and to get back into strong
up-momentum track it has to move above 60114.30 and sustain on the closing basis. The long term uptrend is under
severe threat and it is into deep correction mode now, so the bias is
hugely bearish as of now.
IMPORTANT
NOTE: -PLEASE NOTE THAT TO KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE FOR
A POSSIBLE UP-MOVE IN THE MONTH OF APRIL-2026 IT HAS SUSTAIN ABOVE 50275.35 & 50105.25 ON THE CLOSING BASIS ,ELSE IT WILL SLIDE DOWN FURTHER.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT;-
POSITIVE
POINTS:-
1. It is above almost all of its medium term
moving averages on the monthly chart.
2. Few technical
indicators VM is in the buy mode and RSI is with huge positive divergence and
it is in the oversold zone also, so it may rally at times but that may not last
at this point of time.
NEGATIVE
POINTS:-
1. Almost all the
important technical indicators such as EV, MACD, PS, ST & ADX are in the
sell mode, so down move may happen at times and it can extend also.
2. it is below
all its short term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart.
3. It is below all
of its medium term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and below
few on the monthly chart.
4. It is below all of its long terms moving average on the
daily chart and the top & bottom range of the average is placed between 58220--56622(figure
will change daily) for the day.
5. It is below few of it long term moving averages on the
weekly chart and the averages are placed at 52648---51920---51218 then (figure
will change every day) for the day. It is a very weak sign.
In view of the above observation there is a mixed possibility and it can swing both ways but with a downward--bias as of now. Furthermore please also note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore fall also cannot be ruled out in coming weeks & months. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:
-
WEEKLY CHART: - All the important indicators such as MACD, ST, PS, ADX, EV & VM are in the sell mode and RSI with negative divergence, therefore it is likely to go down further in coming weeks, but the only silver lining is that it is in the oversold zone so it may give relief rally at time. The bias based on indicators is strongly negative.
MONTHLY CHART:-All the important indicators such as MACD, ST,PS & VM are in the sell mode and RSI with negative divergence, therefore it is likely to go down further in coming months, but the silver lining is that ADX is in the buy mode and it is in the oversold zone, therefore, all together indicators are painting a weak picture with a strong tilt towards downside as of now.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is still into deep correction mode and below its important point of 52856.92, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it moves above the aforesaid point and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on sharp decline and near critical support points or range, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is above
its most crucial 6th, 7th, make or break bottom of 49156.95 & 47702.90 if it sustains above these points on the
closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive, else it may
correct sharply.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which
is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it
down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is
making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
3. It is into
deep correction mode as it is below all of its correction threshold points of 60824.83 ---60677.22----59985.44---59828.74---59809.96---58789---58445.85---58789--- 58445.85---58062.34-----57673.21---57124.84-----56300.67----54776.63---50991.40
(figure may change),
sustained close below this range can drag it down further.
4. It is below
all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for day is between 55267---54810--53832---53180---53105---52561(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can pull it down further.
5. It below its 1st & 2nd major
long-term rising trend line which is placed at 59795
& 54785 for the month of April-2026, it is a weak sign.
6. Its 1st major long term rising trend line drawn from the
bottom of 16116 made in 2020 is placed at 59810 (figure may change daily) for the day. It is
below it now, which is a negative sign.
7. It is below
its most crucial 1st, 2nd,3rd 4th, 5th, make
or break bottom of
57783.20--- 57157.85 & 54226.60----53561.75----53483.05 if it sustains below these points on the closing
basis then the chances of further down move is strongly indicated.
8. It is below its 2nd
major long term rising trend line drawn from the bottom of 16116
made in 2020 is placed at 54452 (figure
may change daily) for the day. It is a weak sign.
9. It is below its 1st
& 2nd short term rising trend line which is placed at 53554 & 52536 (figure
will change every day) for the day. It is a positive sign.
10. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1.
Long trade can be tried on decline near 50105 if it holds this point for some time then,
with a stop loss of 49900 for intraday gain else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market
could be a very risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51050---51200 with
a stop loss of 51400 or
can sell if it moves below 50100 and
maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 50350. It could be
a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa. Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:- I am not a SEBI registered technical analyst. The view
expressed here are solely of the author and purely for the academic and
educational purpose. This is in no way a trading or investment advice.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.