AN ELABORATE TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY FOR—16.9.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—54884.05---High—55018.70--Low—54807.50---Close—54887.85 on 15.9.2025.

 

Support:54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:54905.60/55149.30/55475.45/55547.35/55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 78.55 points. Please note that it has been rising for the last 9 days in a row and with each, rising day vulnerability of correction is increasing and now it has come to a point where correction looks inevitable in a day or two, so be alert and watchful. Furthermore the gap it created on 10.9.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could come down to 54350.65, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but please note that it will fill the gap one day for sure.   It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility and it is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup looks o.k., but it is still into different corrective mode for recent and earlier rise, and most importantly it is decisively below its major long term rising trend-line which is drawn from the bottom of 16116.25 made on 24.3.2020 and placed at 55725 for the day, therefore fear of going down is still there in coming times. But the positive thing is that it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is above its short term rising trend-line which was placed at 54747(figure will change & inch up every day) for 15.9.2025 and is placed at 54911 for 16.9.2025 , so to keep up-move going on it has to stay & close above it, furthermore it is above its most critical range of 54674.86---54579---54521.48---54467.35---54312.12 (some figures may change daily), and if it sustain above these points on the closing basis then the up-move is surely likely to extend, but sustained close below 54911 may derail the on-going up-move, break & sustained close below 54674.86 will push it into short corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below the range of  54579----54547.69—54521.48 will pose a threat to long term uptrend and will dim the chances of extending the up move, break & sustained close below 54467.35 may trigger fresh fall and will also dampen the chances of a continued up-move in the year—2025, break & sustained close below 54312.12  can drag it down further to  53483 levels but on the way it will find support at 54174.06---53658.15---53655.65---53606.45(some figure may change)  for the month of September-2025 and if it holds this range or points then the chances of resuming the up-move will be alive. Please note that break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall.  

Moving down further its next critical & strong support point will be at 53483.05 and if it does not hold this point on the closing basis then it may witness an accelerated fall and then the final support range could be 53069---52767 (range will change daily), but break & sustained close below this range will trigger fresh fall and long term uptrend would also be in potential danger and then it may head for sharp fall may be with-in-between short relief rallies.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 54911---55285.91----55555---55629.14-----56038.48---56098.70-------56650.10-----56816-----56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again. Please note that if it moves above 54910 and sustain on the closing basis then it can generate good speed for the up-move, if it moves above  55555 and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain good strength for extending the up move, if it moves above the range of  56038.48---56098.70 and sustain then it will get good foothold and raise good hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 56650.10 and sustain then it will get out of deep corrective mode for its recent rise, if it moves above 56816 and sustain on the closing basis then it  may get back  into  up- momentum track and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40 or may go beyond it also. It is already into deep correction mode for its recent & earlier gains and long term uptrend is also threatened.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - TO KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE FOR AN UP-MOVE IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMDER—2025 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 53658.15---53655.65 & 53606.45 IN THE MONTH AND FOR A CONTINUED UP-MOVE IN THE YEAR-2025 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 54467.35 & 54579 ON THE CLOSING BASIS; ELSE IT MAY KEEP DRIFTING DOWN.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. Almost all important indicator are positive and EV, MACD, PS & ST is in the buy mode, RSI is with positive divergence, so it may rally at times and up-move can extend.

2. Volatility method has triggered fresh buy signal on 1.9.2025, so be watchful.

3. It is above all short term moving averages on the daily chart.

4. It is above all its long terms moving averages and the top average it at 54579(figure will change every day) for the day.

5. It is in the oversold zone on the weekly chart, so it may have relief rally at times.

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. It is below majority of its short terms moving average on the weekly chart.

2. It is below majority of its medium terms moving average on the daily chart.

3. Few important technical indicators are negative and ADX is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct at times.

4. On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD, EV, PS, VM are in the sell mode and RSI is showing negative divergence, so it may correct sharply in the coming week.

In view of the above there is a possibility that the up-move can extend with-in-between relief rally till it holds its important & key points or range of 54579---54467.35 on the closing basis as mentioned above. But please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

WEEKLY CHART: - All the important indicators are negative MACD, EV, PS & VM are in the sell mode and RSI is showing negative divergence, therefore further fall looks quite likely in coming weeks .But the only silver lining is that it is in the oversold zone, so it may have short up-moves at times.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in the buy mode such as MACD, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with tilt towards down-side as of now.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise but it moved above its recent key point of 54674.86---54579---54547.69---54467.35  (figure may change) , therefore as long as it holds these point on the closing basis it will be buy on decline market.  But short trade can also be tried on the reasonable or sharp rise near critical resistance points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its most crucial 2^nd bottom of 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 50939 for the month of September-2025, it is a very strong support point.

3. It is making higher top & bottom on the line chart.

4. It is above its short pullback threshold point of 54174.06(figure may change), sustained close above it may keep the hope alive for further up-move.

5. It is above its recent pullback threshold point of 54521.48(figure may change), if it sustain above it then up-move can extend.

6. The price action was positive today.

7 It is above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

8. It is above all of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 54673---54624--54533---54508---54423---54322(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.

9. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 54674.86(figure may change). Break & close below this point will push it into short correction mode for its very recent rise.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point and also below its medium & deep correction threshold points 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10--- 55861----55629.14 & 55285.91 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.

3. It has broken its 1st major first major long term rising trend line which is placed at 55724 for the month of September-2025, it is a very weak sign.

4. It is decisively below its most crucial 1^st bottom of 55149.30, if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will drift down further.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 54884 for some time then, with a stop loss of 54700   for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55050—55150 with a stop loss of 55200 or can sell if it moves below 54800 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 54950.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.