A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-31.7.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24890.40—High—24902.30---Low---24771.95---Close---24855.05 on 30.7.2025

Support:24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24733.40/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24857.75/24882.30/24892.60/24918.65/25001.95/25079.20/25116.25/25136.20/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up- gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process it filled the gap of the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 33.95 points. The gap it created on 25.7.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 25019, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for now but it will fill the gap one day for sure. It is  important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 on the upside 25340.45) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is very weak, it is into short & medium correction mode for its recent rise, it is decisively below its rising trend-line, it has broken its recent bottoms on the line & bar chart, it is below its pullback threshold point , below all its short term moving average on the daily & few below weekly chart also & below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart, furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is giving a very weak indication and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming times. But it is above its few critical points of 24851.30----24753.15----24742.88 and if it sustains above these points on the closing basis then the up-move can extend, but break & sustained close below 24851.30 may dampen the chances of an extended up-move, break & sustained close below 24753.15----24742.88 will push it into deep correction mode and may witness an accelerated fall.

Moving down further it will find support at 24494----24473-----24462----24345(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below the range of  24494----24462 will be a potential trigger point  for going down further and finally break & sustained close below  24345  will threaten the long term uptrend and may drag it down further, moving down  it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23930----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and the long term uptrend will be in potential danger and it may end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it may witness an accelerated fall. It is in the long term uptrend, but into short, medium & deep correction mode now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 25035----25052----25152-----25239.36—25260.22----25371----25387.01----25448.47---25455----25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35.(some figures may change) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also. Please note that if it moves above the range of 25034----25052----25152 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get reasonable strength to extend the up-move, if it moves above the range of 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25455----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, and sustained close above 25371 will raise good hope for extending the up-move further and there would be a distinct possibility that it may retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. It is in the long term uptrend, but into short & medium term correction mode now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottoms on the line & bar chart both, it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily  & below few on the weekly chart and above rest on the weekly & monthly chart, it is below few medium term moving average on the daily chart, but above rest of the averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and finally it is above all the long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is more or less a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. But  all the important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and majority are in the sell mode such as MACD,EV, PS,  ADX &  RSI is with huge negative divergence and but the silver lining is that it is in the oversold  zone and ST &VM is into buy mode, so it may have a relief rally at times(as it happening for last two days), but that may not last,  so, there is a high probability of it going down soon and it is already into the deep correction mode, so in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore at times it may swing both ways but with strong  tilt towards downside as of now. Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV are in the buy mode, but it is in the deep overbought zone and RSI has negative divergence, so it can correct at times, the overall setup looks mixed as of now. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and MACD is in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming   months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into correction mode now therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 25371and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 24128 & 22481 for the month of July-2025, these are the very strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 24753.15 & 23893.70 sustained close above it will help to extend the up-move.

4. It is only above its deep correction threshold points of 24742.88(figure may change), if it sustains above it, it is a positive sign for moving up.

5 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24345 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. RSI is with negative divergence and MACD, EV, ADX, & PS is in the sell mode, so, it can correct at times and it is already into correction mode now.

3. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 25496.48---25448.47---25387.01---25260.22----25239.36 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

4. It is way below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 26277.35.

5. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 25152----25052----25035----24971---24959---24915(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down further.

6. It has broken its recent bottoms on the line & bar chart.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 25371 and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 24755----24742 if it holds this range for some time, but not below it with a stop loss of 24670, for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24950---25000 with a stop loss of 25070 or can sell if it moves below 24670 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 24770. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com