A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—3.7.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—57558.20---High—57628.40--Low—56833.80---Close—56999.20 on 2.7.2025.

 

Support:56670/56601/56324/56161.40/56098.70/55957.75/55695/55475.45//55149.30/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:57049.50/57566/57614.50/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process hit yet again a new all-time high of 57628.40 and finally, ended the day with a loss of 460.25 points. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 56233.55,54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has weakened a bit today, therefore the continuation of the up-move may be in jeopardy if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above its key points, else it may slide down further, furthermore I have been constantly warning that its see-saw movement every other day is a matter of deep concern and possibly can drag it down sharply in coming times once price action starts weakening. Please note that today it has broken its recent bottom on the line chart and gotten into short correction mode for its recent rise, which is weak sign and can drag it down further. However moving down if it manages to hold the range of 56908.08----56650.10(figure may change) chances of up-move will be alive, but break & sustained close below the range will push it into medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and will be an alert sign for going down, moving down further its important critical support range would be 56623-----56466-----56438----56098.70(some figures may change daily) it is strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below the range of 56623-----56438 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below 56098.70 may witness an accelerated fall and then moving down further  its most critical support points or range could be, 55629.14----55285.91-----54467.35( some figures may change), which is yet again a very strong and important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below the range of 55629.14----55285.91 will push it into medium and deep correction mode for its earlier rise and break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 57043.33----57049.50----57566---57570---57683---57755---57930----58000(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above 57043.33----57049.50 and sustain on the closing basis then it can resume the up-move again, else it may drift down. It is in a strong long term uptrend, but in a short correction as of now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today, which is weak sign; but it is above all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for moving up further. Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode such as MACD, EV, PS & ADX but RSI is with negative divergence, VM &ST is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone. So there is a high probability of a correction anytime soon and today it got into correction mode, but in totality as of now it is giving positive signal for the extension of the up-move. But please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, so it may correct at times, therefore  fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD, PS, ADX & EV are in the buy mode,  RSI in tandem now but earlier negative divergence still exist and it is in the overbought zone and ST in the sell mode, which is a concern, so it can correct at times, but overall looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly  chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply go down in coming months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It gotten into correction mode today therefore for aggressive traders it is sell on the rise market till it closes above 57049.50 and sustain and for safe traders till it closes above 57375.80 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on decline near critical support points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30& 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 53066(figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

4 It is above almost all its correction threshold point of 56908.08---56650.10----55629.14 & 55285.91 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong hope for moving up further.

5 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

6. It is above its long term rising trend-line which is placed at 54556 &50016 for the month of July—2025.

8. It is above almost all(except for one) its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 57022--56857--56739---56623---56466---56438(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. RSI is with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone and VM & ST is in the sell mode, so, it can correct at times.

3. It slipped into short correction mode today as it closed below its threshold point of 57043.33(figure may change), sustained close below it can drag it down further.

4. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

5. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 57375.80 and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 56908---56800 but not below it with a stop loss of 56630 or can try buying if it moves above 57050 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of  56800 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 57375—57475 with a stop loss of 57640 or can sell if it moves below 56820 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 57060.   It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.