A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—25064.65—High—25070---Low---24953.05---Close---25019.80 on 16.5.2025.

Support:24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 42.30 points.  Please note that the gap it created on 12.5.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1 day, which is technically possible the it can come down to 24164, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will certainly fill the gap one day for sure. It is important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is looking strong now for the continuation of the up-move, if it manages to hold the range of 24857---24837.65-----24753.15(some figure may change) on the closing basis. But break & sustained close below 24837.65 will push it into correction mode for it very recent rise and break & sustained close below 24753.15(make or break point) may derail the strong up-momentum and it may start the slide down again and then it will find support at 24665---24589.15---24541----24526----24457.65---24387---24334.25---24329---24311.90—24214---24180---24172(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points ,but break & sustained close below 24541 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter close below each point will weaken it and finally break & sustained close below the range of 24311.90—24180---24172 may drag it down further. Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also, but if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making higher top & bottom top on the line & bar chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up. Furthermore most of the important indicators are positive now and in the buy mode such as MACD/PS/ ADX/EV&ST, but RSI showing negative divergence. So, in totality it is giving positive signal now for moving up. But earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times, therefore it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV is in the buy mode,  but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds 24753.15 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. Most of the technical indicators are positive, and MACD, ADX, PS & ST in buy mode.

2. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

3. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

4. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 23893.70 & 24753.15, sustained close above it will put it on the strong up-momentum track for the continuation of the up-move.

5. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23400(figure will change every day) for the day.

6. It is above its very short, short &deep correction threshold points of 24837.65---24497.02---24412.20 & 23917.61(figure may change).

7 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24180 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

8. It is  above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24696----24632----24578----24528---24394---24329(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move further.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Few technical indicators are negative such as EV in sell mode, negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone so, it may correct at times and it is already into correction mode.

3. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24857--- 24754 but not below it with a stop loss of 24680 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25300---25350 with a stop loss of 25425. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com