A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—12.5.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—53595.95---High—54054.80---Low—53483.05---Close—53595.25 on 9.5.2025.  

 

Support:53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:53792.85/53888.30/54176.45/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 770.40 points. Please note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4—5 days, which is technically possible the it can come up to 54108, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will certainly fill the gap one day for sure. It is also important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is still looks o.k. for the continuation of the up-move.  But it is into deep correction mode for its recent rise and below other critical points also, which is a weak sign, therefore as of now further fall is very much likely in the coming times. Moving down further the broad support points could be at 53545---53358-----53447---53000----52891---52760----52628---52577-----51900---51808----50910---50795---50545---49684----49382---49156(some figure may change daily), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 53000, which is a major long term rising trend line then it may witness an accelerated fall and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it. The long term trend is still bullish but now but it is into deep corrective mode now for its recent rise. So be extremely cautious and alert in the long trade.   

Moving up the resistance points could be at 53739----53888---54117.22---54166.73---54176.45---54460.45---54467.35—55088----55101----55278-----55538-----55648-----55740---55827---55958----56099----56159—56307—56721—56767, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while or may end it for good. Please note that if it moves above the range of 54117.22---54166.73---54176.45---54460.45---54467.35 then it could get back in the up momentum track again in the year-2025, else may it may keep drifting down with in between short relief rallies.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart now, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a weak sign, but it is above all short term moving average on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is positive sign for moving up further. But certain important technical indicators has turned negative and triggered sell mode in MACD,PS & EV and it is in the overbought zone, but at the same time one or two indicators are still positive, which seems insignificant. So, in totality it is giving mixed signal but slight tilt towards weakness, furthermore earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into deep corrective mode now, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days, therefore it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and the overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times and it is already into corrective mode. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is sell on the rise market now till it closes above the range of 54117.22---54166.73---54176.45---54460.45---54467.35 and sustain on the closing basis or it gives a visible indication of correction completion. But long trade can also be tried near critical support points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Few important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and in the buy mode but it is not significant.

2. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

3. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

4. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51515 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators turned into sell mode on the daily chart such as MACD /PS & EV, so, it can correct at times and it is already into correction mode.

3. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 55537.36---54460.45 & 54117.22 (figure may change) sustained close below these points is a weak indication and can drag it down. 

4. It is making  lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

5. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 54746--54578--54531---54403---54026----53869(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down further.

6 It is below its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

7. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 53485 and then near 53000 if it maintains near these point for some time, but not below it with a stop loss of 53300 & 52870 respectively.  for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair, so be vigilant and cautious.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 53900—54000 with a stop loss of 54200 or can sell if it moves below 53480 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 54680 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.