A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-16.4.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23368.35—High—23368.35---Low---23207---Close---23328.55 on 15.4.2025.

Support:23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up gap and the open was the high also for the day and thereafter it moved below it during the day and finally ended the day, with a handsome gain of 500 points. The gap it created today and on 11.4.2025 & 8.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the respective gap in the next 4—5/ 3--4 & 1---2 days trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 22923---22468 & 22254, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved but still weak. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and long term uptrend is severely threatened as it is below almost all its long term moving averages except for one on the daily chart. But the good thing is that it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart. it bounced back above its first long term moving average from the downside which is placed at 23240(figure will change daily) for the day and most importantly it moved above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23302 for the month of April-2025 and finally it is way above its most crucial make or break range of 22702---22800. Please note that if it sustains above 23302 & 23240 on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further, but break and sustained close below this may trigger down move again and finally break & sustained close below the range of 22800-22702 may accelerate the fall.. Moving down it will find support at 22281 & 22165 and then in the range of 21964----21821---21777---21743---21710---21530 it could bounce back from any point of this range, but break and sustained close below this range  on the closing basis or even if it stays below 22281 & 22165 on the closing basis  for a longer period of time then it can most likely to  slide  down to 21281--- 21137—21021 and this could be the ultimate bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021(most important point) and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into the confirmed bear market territory and if it stays longer below it then it may seek much lower levels, which may please be noted.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 23361----23420.02----23483----23502.64----23539----23637.65---23644.80-----23661-----23789----23893.70----23936----24054----24185(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points then may resume the up- move or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above 23420.02 & 23502.64 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent correction mode and may extend the up-move. But please note that  it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move in the year 2025, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23936----24054----24185 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has higher top & bottom on the line chart, it is above all its short term moving average on the daily and weekly chart but below mostly on the monthly chart, it is mostly above its medium term moving average on the daily & below few on the weekly chart, and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average except for one on the on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. Furthermore all the important indicators are giving mixed indication now few in buy mode and few in the sell mode and in the overbought zone. So, all together it is showing mixed sign slightly tilted towards down side as of now, therefore, fear of going down further is distinctly there may be with short relief rallies at times. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for the further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly important indicators such as MACD, ADX & PS is in the sell mode and in the overbought zone also, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is below its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 23302---23240(figure may change) and finally the range of 22800--22700 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is well above its critical or make or break range of 22702---22800, which is a positive sign.

2. It is making higher top & bottom on the line chart.

3. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22245---22479 & 22814 (figure may change), sustained close above it may help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23051----23029----22948----22942---22923---22836(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.

5. Few technical indicators have turned positive and in the buy mode.

6. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23302 for the month of April-2025, it is a very good sign.

7. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. All the important indicators are negative now on the daily chart and majorly in the sell mode and in the overbought zone.

3. It is below its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

4. It is below its recent short & deep correction threshold point of 23502.64 & 23420.02(figure may change), sustained close below these points will help it to slide down further.

5. The long-term uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is almost below all its long-term moving averages except for one and the whole range is 24185---23240 (figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that sustained close above 23240 will keep the hope alive of an extended up-move.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23302---23240 but not below it with a stop loss of 23190 or if it moves above 23369 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23290 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23470---23500 with a stop loss of 23570 or can sell if it move below 23200 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23320. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com