A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—7.4.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—51711.60---High—51893.60---Low—51360.40---Close—51502.70on 4.4.2025. 

Support:51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 94.70 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup looks good for the continuation of the up-move, but it is still dicey because it did made higher top on the line chart, but yet to make a higher bottom, therefore watch out till it makes higher bottom else it may end the up-move, but the good and strongly positive thing is that it is still holding on to its most crucial support points of 51352(figure will change every day) which is the top long term average,  above its recent fall pullback threshold point of 51053.98(figure may Change), above its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change) and finally way above its most important & critical points of 50841.90 & 50860.20, please note that it is essential to stay above these points to keep the chances of a continued up move alive in the year 2025. Please note that as long as it manages to hold the above points on the closing basis it can extend the up-move. But  break & sustained close below each  aforesaid points will weaken it and may  trigger fall again and then it could head down to its first make or break bottom of 50369.40, it is a strong bounce back point, but if it break & sustain below it on the closing basis then it could drift down to its second and most important make or break bottom of 49654.65 this is the ultimate bounce back point, but break and sustained close below it may accelerate the fall  and  the up move may end for a while and it will also put the long term uptrend in potential danger.  Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range can take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.

Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 51526---51752----51800 (some figures may change), it can correct at any of these points, but if it moves above 51800 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95 or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it sustains above 52063.95 on the closing basis then the next broad resistance or target points could be at 52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move or rally can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest one of its top of 53888.30 and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.     

IMPORTANT NOTE:-The overall parameters are looking good for the continuation of the up-move, as it has made higher top, but yet to make a higher bottom on the line chart, which is concerning therefore still there is a chance  that the rally may abruptly end  till it  makes a higher bottom.  But I once again reiterate that till it holds the points as mentioned above chances of the up-move will be strongly alive. PLEASE NOTE THAT BREAK & SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW 50860.20 & 50841.90 MAY END THE UP-MOVE FOR GOOD FOR SOME TIME.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has higher top on the line chart, but yet to make higher bottom, so watch out till it makes higher bottom, but it is above all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is extremely good sign for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode, but there is a negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it may correct at times, but in totality it is emitting positive signal therefore likely to move up further, provided it holds the key support points as mentioned above.  So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are positive now and majority of the indicators are in the buy mode, but there is a negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 51352---51053.98---51034.67 and then finally it holds 50860.20 & 50841.90 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode.

2. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51398--51353--51067---50731---50453----50013(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.

3. It is above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above its most crucial bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above these on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.

5. It is above its recent fall pullback threshold point of 51053.98 (figure may change), sustained close above this may help it to extend the up-move.

6. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).

7. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

8. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the whole range is between 51352---49710 (the range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain above 51352(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.

9. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.

3. It has made higher top today on the line chart, but yet to make higher bottom.

4. It is showing negative divergence in the RSI now on the daily chart.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 51380----51350 but not below it with a stop loss of 51170 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51900—52000 with a stop loss of 52100 or can sell if it moves below 51170 and maintain for some time, then with a stop loss of 51370. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.