A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—21.4.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—53153.75---High—54407.20---Low—53084.90---Close—54290.20 on 17.4.2025. 

Support:54247.70/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter it steadily moved up during the day and finally ended the day with a huge gain of 1172.45 points. The gap it created on 15.4.2025 and on 11.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2—3 &1—2 respective trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 51244 & 50496, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is extraordinarily strong for the continuation of the up-move, but please note that it made an all-time top of 54467.35 on 26.9.2024 and today, it made a top at 54407.20, so it can be termed as a double top, furthermore in the last seven days it had a vertical rise of more than 5250 points on the intraday basis, so both double top & vertical rise is highly concerning and may trigger correction.  Therefore please note that if it moves above 54467.35 and sustain on the closing basis then the on-going up-move may extend further, but if it fails to cross the said top then it could correct and you are well aware that vertical rise may have vertical fall too at times, so it may correct sharply. Moving down it may find good support at 53168.14—53114.46--52824.91& 52700(figure may change) levels and if it holds these points on the closing basis then the chances of resuming the up-move will be alive and particularly if it holds 53114.46 then in all likelihood it may retest its all-time high top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also, but break & sustained close below this range will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and it may witness an accelerated fall. Therefore in view of the above observation long trade can be tried if it moves above 54467.35 and sustain on the closing basis or on decline near or within  the range of 53168.14—53114.46--52824.91 with proper stop losses.  

Moving up top resistance point is its all-time high of 54467.35 and for further resistance points please refer to the resistance table on the upside.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made higher top & bottom on the line and bar chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is positive sign for moving up further. Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive and in the buy mode now, but it is showing negative divergence and also in the deep overbought zone, so, it may correct at times. Therefore in totality it is looking strong  for extending the up-move further, but  double top, vertical rise, negative divergence and overbought zone is a deep concern now.  So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds the range of 53168.14—53114.46--52824.91  on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now and in the buy mode.

2. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

3. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

4. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51990--51941--51584---51570---51196----51200(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

6. It is above all its long-term moving averages now and the whole range is between 51335---49800 (the range will change every day). Please note that as long as it sustain above 51335(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the hope of up-move will be alive and it may extend the up-move for sure.

7. It is well above its short & deep correction threshold points of 53168.14 & 52824.91(figure may change) for its recent rise.

8. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. RSI is showing negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 53168----53115with a stop loss of 52800 or if it moves above 54468 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 54270 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 54850—54950 with a stop loss of 55150 or can sell near 54407 if it does not cross it even in intraday in first one and half hour of trade then with a stop loss of 54550. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.