A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—15.4.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—50634.10---High—51244.70---Low—50634.10---Close—51002.35 on 11.4.2025. 

Support:51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with an up-gap and the open was the low for the day also and thereafter it moved up and finally ended the day with a gain of 762.20 points. The gap it created on 7.4.2025 and today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2—3 & 4—5 respective trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 51361 and can come down to 50496, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved but still not out of woods. It is still into correction mode for its earlier rise and below few long term moving averages. But the good thing is that it has made higher top & bottom on the bar chart.  Furthermore it has moved above its most critical & crucial points of 50841.90 & 50860.20, please note that it is essential to stay above these points on the closing basis to keep the hope alive for a continued up-move in the year-2025. However, even if it break the above mentioned points but manages to hold the point 50369.40---49843----49718----49654.65( some figure may change daily) on the closing basis, it could still bounce back and may resume the up-move again, but break & sustained close below 50369.40, which is a first make or break bottom, will be a strong warning sign, break & sustained close below 49843 & 49718 will dampen the chances of an up-move and will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally break & sustained close below 49654.65 which is its second make or break bottom will trigger fresh fall and it may accelerate the down move. Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---49300---49163---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range can take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.

Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 51015----51037.17---51340-----51378---51483 (some figures may change daily), it can correct at any of these points, but if it moves above the range of 51015----51034.17----51340 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it is likely to extend the up-move further for sure, if it moves above 51483 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95 or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it sustains above 52063.95 on the closing basis then the next broad resistance or target points could be at 52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move or rally can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest one of its top of 53888.30 and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.     

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart, it is above almost all its short moving average on the daily above all on the weekly & almost all above on the monthly chart, it is above all its medium term moving average on the daily & almost all above on the weekly chart, but most importantly it is still below few of its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is concerning.  Furthermore most of all the important technical indicators are  negative now and in the sell mode and also in the overbought zone, so, it may correct at times , provided it does not sustain above its crucial support point as mentioned in the above paragraph. Therefore in totality it is emitting mixed signal now but with slight positive bias as of now.  So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart indicators are giving mixed signals few in buy, few in sell mode, there is a negative divergence too and it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds 50841.90 & 50860.20 and then 50369.40 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Only one indicator is in the buy mode.

3. It is above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

5. It is above its recent fall pullback threshold point of 49843 (figure may change), sustained close above this may help it to extend the up-move.

6. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart.

7. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

8. It is almost above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51004--50832--50815---50744---50450----50434(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

9. It is below only few of its long-term moving averages now and the whole range is between 51340---49718 (the range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain above 49718(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the hope of up-move will be alive and if it moves above 51340 and sustain on the closing basis then it will extend the up-move for sure.

10. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. In majority of the indicators it still has sell mode and in the overbought zone also on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.

3. It is below its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50860---50840 but not below it with a stop loss of 50600 or if it moves above 51179 and maintain for some time, then with a stop loss of 50980 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51500—51600 with a stop loss of 51750. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.