A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-24.3.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23168.25—High—23402.70---Low---23132.80---Close---23350.40 on 21.3.2025.

Support:23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 159.75 points. Please note that it has been vertically rising for the last 5 days in a row and with each rising day, vulnerability of correction is increasing, although it is showing good strength now for the continuation of the up move but it may correct any time, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap it created on 20.3.2025 and on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3—4 & 2-1 trading sessions respectively, which is technically possible then it can come down to 22940 & 22577, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is showing good strength for the continuation of the up-move as it moved above its first long term moving average from down which is placed at 23278(figure will change daily) for the day, furthermore it is above its short correction threshold point of 23145.96, above major long term rising trend-line which is placed at 23083(figure will change every day) for the day, above the deep correction threshold point of 23063.31 and above its long pullback threshold point of 22983. Therefore as long as it holds the range of 23280---23145.96---23083---23063.31---22983 on the closing basis chances of a continued up-move looks good, but be cautious once it break 23083 & 23063.31 levels. But even if it breaks the above range but manage to hold its  most critical / make or break range of 22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45, it could still bounce back sharply and may resume the up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may end the on-going up-move for good for a while and it may start to move down and moving down it may find support at 22660---22647---22586(figures will change every day), it may bounce back from this range, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then it may find support in the range of 22281---22194.55---22165---22124.70---22104.85, but break & sustained close below this range may accelerate the fall. Moving down further its important support points could be at 21964.60---21821---21777.65---21710---21530, it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each point will weaken it further. It is important to mention here that if it breaks & sustains below 22281 & 22165 on the closing basis for a longer time period then it is definitely likely to come down to 21281---21137—21021.88 levels or lower, please note that if it moves below 21021.88 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain price-wise & time-wise both. The short term bias is up, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened and in jeopardy as of now.    

Moving up the other key resistance points would be at 23398----23518----23637.65----23644.80------23672----23792-----23893.70----23918-----23948----24069----24192(some figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 23398 & 23518 and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen further for the up-move, but to keep the hope of strong up move alive in the year 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down again, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23948----24069----24192 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.

 HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:- The downside target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of 21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it could trigger fall again.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart both and on the bar chart it is making higher top & bottom, it is above all its short term moving average on the daily chart & above few on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above few medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average except for one on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning for the long term uptrend as of now. Please note that almost all the important technical indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode and with huge positive divergence but in the deep overbought zone now, so, it may correct at times. But, it is emitting positive signal now therefore likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction or till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. But mind you as of now it seems to be a pullback rally only and can fizzle out abruptly also, so be cautious and alertly ride this rally and keep an eye on the critical points and price action for further directional indication and change of the trajectory.  

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart certain indicators has turned positive now, although it is in the sell mode in the few indicators, but there is  huge positive divergence and is in the oversold/neutral zone, so it can rally further from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks or  months . So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 23150---23083 and finally the range of 22798---22725 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. All the important indicators are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode and with positive divergence.

2. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 22400---22648 & 22983 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 22859----22829----22763----22717---22660---22586(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may extend the up-move.

4. The long-term uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is below almost all its long-term moving averages except for one which are  placed at  23278 (figure will change every day) for the day. This is slightly comforting sign for the continuation of the up move.

5. It crossed it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.

6. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 23063.31 &23145.93(figure may change).

7. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct.

3. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23250------23150 but not below it with a stop loss of 23070 or can try long trade if it moves above 23416 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23330 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23570---23630 with a stop loss of 23700. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com