A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.3.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—22662.25—High—22857.80---Low---22599.20-Close---22834.30 on 18.3.2025.

Support:22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 325.55 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 22577, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.  

Today’s up-move has improved the technical setup reasonably well as it moved above its medium pullback threshold points of 22648 and after a long time it moved above its short term moving averages also and most importantly it reclaimed the range of 22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45 which was a very important range and it broke this range after testing it for 7-8 time and went on to hit a low of 21964.60. Therefore all together it is giving positive indication for the continuation of the up-move. Please note that if it holds the range of 22798.35---22725.45 on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further, but break & sustained close below this range may end this on-going up-move and start to move down and moving down it may find support at 22647---22623---22556---22491(figures will change every day), break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall then finally it may find support in the range of 22281---22194.55---22165---22124.70---22104.85, but break & sustained close below this range may accelerate the fall. Moving down further its important support points could be at 21964.60---21821---21777.65---21710---21530, it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each point will weaken it further. It is important to mention here that if it breaks & sustains below 22281 & 22165 on the closing basis for a longer time period then it is definitely likely to come down to 21281---21137—21021.88 levels or lower, please note that if it moves below 21021.88 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain price-wise & time-wise both. It is important to mention here that it is still weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters are also weak therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term perspective and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short term bias is slightly up, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is threatened and in jeopardy as of now. 

Moving up the other key resistance points would be at 22983---23150---23295---23405----23528----23637.65----23644.80------23819-----23893.70----23937-----23948----24061----24190(some figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves 22983  which is a long pullback threshold point then it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move, if it moves above 23150 & 23295 and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen further for the up-move, but to keep the hope of strong up move alive in the year 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23937-----23948----24061----24190 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: --

1. It has given upside breakout from the weekly range, therefore as long as it holds 22676.75 during the on-going week the up move may continue with in between short down move.   

2.It is important to mention here that the major long term trend line which was drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made on 24.3.2020 is decisively broken after almost five years, which is a very weak sign and if it does not bounce back above it in a shortest possible time, then it may witness an accelerated fall. Please note that the trend line is placed for the month of March-2025 at 23150

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still  below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain and it will be fully negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its lower top on the line & bar chart both and on the bar chart it is making higher top & bottom, it has moved above all its short term moving average on the daily chart , but majorly below on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above very few medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart &  majorly below on the daily & weekly chart , and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, almost all important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode and with positive divergence but in the overbought zone, so, it may correct at times. Therefore, broadly it is emitting positive signal now and it can surprise on the upside in coming times as of now, but mind you as of now it is a pullback rally only and can fizzle out abruptly, so be cautious and alertly play this rally and keep an eye on the critical points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart with huge negative divergence and MACD in the sell mode but it is in the oversold zone. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above its short & medium pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 22798---22725 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. All the important indicators are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode and with positive divergence.

2. It is above its short & medium pullback threshold point of 22400---22648 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 22623----22556----22540----22532---22491---22468(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may extend the up-move.

4. It crossed it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.

5. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates oversold condition, negative divergence and MACD in sell mode.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 23669.17---23566.49---22729.63----22647---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. It is in the overbought zone.

5. It is below all its long-term moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

6. It is below its long pullback threshold point of 22983 (figure may change), sustained close below it can weaken the chances of an up-move and it may start to moves down.

7. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22768------22730 but not below it with a stop loss of 22630 or can buy if it moves above 22860 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22760 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23070---23100 with a stop loss of 23170. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com