A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-1.4.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23600.40—High—23649.20---Low---23450.20---Close---23519.35 on 28.3.2025.

Support:23484.15/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 72.60 points. It still  looks o.k. for the continuation of the up move, but further down move cannot be ruled out as yet, so be cautious. Please note that it has almost filled the gap on 27.3.2025 it created on 24.3.2025, the gap point was 23402 and days low was 23412.20 and for other two gaps stipulated time to fill the gap is over but it will fill the gap some day, the gap points are 22940 & 22577. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup still looks o.k. for the continuation of the up-move, but it has made lower top on the line chart today, which is a weak sign, but yet to make lower bottom therefore it can still bounce back, furthermore it is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65, which is a weak sign.  Please note that to keep the chances of continued up move alive in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it will weaken the chances of the up-move and finally today it just closed below its recent fall pullback threshold point of 23520.15(figure may change), therefore it is giving weak sign now and can drag it down. However it is still above few other important & critical points, such as above its short & deep correction threshold point of 23502.64 & 23420.02(figure may change) and above few of its long term moving averages and the last one is placed at 23287(figure will change every day) and it is above is major rising trend line which is placed at 23250 for the month of April-2025. So, please note that as long as it holds the range of 23502.64---23420.02 and then the range of 23287----23250 on the closing basis then there is a hope that it can bounce back and may resume the up-move again. But break & sustained close below the range of 23502.64---23420.02—23286 & 23250 may trigger fresh fall again and can drag it down sharply and the up move may end for a while. Moving down further it’s major and most critical or make or break support range is between22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45, it could sharply bounce back from this range and may resume the broad up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall. The short & medium-term trend looks up but the long-term uptrend is still under threat as of now.    

Moving up the key resistance points would be at -23637.65---23644.80-----23768-----23893.70----23895-----23966----24083----24210(some figures may change daily).Please note that  it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move in the year 2025, else it may start to drift down, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23966----24083----24210 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.

 HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:- The downside target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of 21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it could trigger fall again.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top today on the line chart, but yet to make lower bottom , therefore it can still resume the up-move , it is above all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and majorly above monthly chart, it is majorly above all medium term moving average on the daily & majorly above weekly chart, but most importantly it is still majorly below its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. But please note that almost all the important technical indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode , but with negative divergence and in the deep overbought zone now, so, it may correct at times, it corrected today and it may extend, therefore please keep a watch that how it pans out. All together it is emitting positive signal as of now therefore likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction and till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for the further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly almost all important indicators are positive now; maximum, indicators are in the buy mode and with positive divergence, but MACD still in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone, so it can further correct from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 23502.64----23420.02—23287 & 23250 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains. But for safe traders it is suggested to try long trade only if it moves above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH: -

1. All the important indicators are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode.

2. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point (for its earlier falls) of 22400---22648 & 22983 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23444----23299----23271----23095---23094---22815(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may extend the up-move.

4. The long-term uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is majorly below its long-term moving averages but above few which is placed in the range of  23406---23287 (figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that as long as it holds 23287 on the closing basis chances of up-move will be good.

5. It is above its recent short & deep correction threshold point of 23502.64 & 23420.02(figure may change).

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the deep overbought zone & with negative divergence on the daily chart, so the correction can extend further.

3. It is below its recent fall pullback threshold point of 23520.15(figure may change), sustained close below this may dim the chance of up-move.

4. It is below its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

5. It has made lower top on the line chart today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near  23487 if it holds this point for some time, then with a stop loss of 23400 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23670---23720 with a stop loss of 23780 or can sell if it moves below 23480 and then below 23400 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23570 & 23490 respectively. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com