A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—21.2.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49314.10---High—49455.80---Low—49150.95---Close—49334.55 on 20.2.2025. 

Support:49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 235.55 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup on the daily chart has improved a bit,  as it crossed its two previous tops on the line chart yesterday , furthermore it is above  its short & medium pullback threshold points, but if fell below all its short term moving averages and below its long pullback threshold which is concerning. However as long as it holds 49270.57---49025.06 on the closing basis there is a faint chance that it could move up further, but it will get a strong foothold for a continued up-move once it moves above  49408 &  49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis. It is important to mention here that it is still below all its long term moving averages on the daily chart and indicators on the weekly and monthly chart charts are giving weak indication, therefore if it does not move above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then the up-move may fizzle-out and it may start to drift down again. Moving down it will find support at 48913---48504---48404 and finally at the critical support range of 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756, which is a strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods for the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49408---49654.65----49822---49981.52----50232.82----50591----50624----50841.90---50860.20----50927-----50948---51262-----51290(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49408 &49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get a good foothold which may help it to build up base for a good up-move, if it moves above 49822 and sustain then it may strengthen further, if it moves above 49981.52 & 50232.82 then it will get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50927-----50948---51262-----51290 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed it 2 lower top on the line chart, but it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and majorly below on the monthly chart also, it is almost below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few on the weekly chart  and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore four out of seven important technical indicators are negative now with all in the sell mode, but the comforting thing is that three out of seven indicators are positive also and two are in the buy mode and it is in the oversold zone. Therefore, in totality it is emitting mixed signal but broadly tilted towards negative side. But if it moves above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis then the up-move can extend further for sure else the up-move may end . Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON THE DECLINE  MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but the pullback mode is also on therefore, it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 49270.57---49025.06 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried on the rise near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH: -

1. Three out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart and two are in the buy mode, and one in the oversold zone.

2. It is above its short & medium pullback threshold point of 49025.06---49270.57----49408 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can immensely help it to extend the up-move further..

3. It has crossed its two previous lower tops on the line chart today.

4. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----50232.12----49981.52--- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. Four out of seven important technical indicators are negative with three in the sell mode and one is in the overbought zone.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

8 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49525---49477---49474---49467-----49419----49357(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down-move.

9. It is below its long pullback threshold point of 49408 (figure may change), sustained close below it can take it down.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within this range of 49258-----49150 if it holds this range for some time with a stop loss of 49000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49588—49650 with a stop loss of 49750. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.