A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-29.1.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—22960.45—High—23137.95---Low---22857.65--Close---22957.25 on 28.1.2025.

Support:22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23350/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 128.0 points. Please note that it has filled the gap it created yesterday. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical setup is very weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it is way below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But as it held its important points of 22794.70 & 22768.40 yesterday therefore it rallied today but could not sustain at the upper levels and slipped, which is a weak indication. But today it closed above its very short pullback threshold point of 22938 and if it manages to hold it on the closing basis then there may be a ray of hope that it can extend the up-move  for a while, but looking at the overall technical setup as of now  in all probability it is likely to break the aforesaid points for sure in coming days and head down further and in that case the next strong support point would be its long term rising trend line which is placed at 22605 for the day(this figure will inch up-every day), break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall and then the next strong support range would be at 22281—22165---21821---21710 and it could bounce back from this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21150 or lower, which may please be noted. The technical setup is very fragile therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming times. The short- & medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23110.80---23127----23263.15---23276---23350----23520---23611---23637.65---23644.80---23762----23893.70----23987-----24098----24115----24214---24355(figures will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 23127 & 23276 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get some strength to move up further, if it moves above 23520 &23611 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get good strength for extending the up-move, if it moves above 23637.65---23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025,if it move above 23893.70  and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further and if it moves above the range of 24113----24224---24365 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below 23893.70.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and majorly below average on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it is below all of its long term moving average on the daily chart which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and has jeopardized the long term uptrend. Furthermore, few important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and in the sell mode but the comforting thing is that it is in the oversold zone and with slight positive divergence, therefore it may have relief rally at times but it is not likely to sustain because the overall chart setup is very weak therefore further fall looks inevitable as of now in coming days if does not move-up sharply above some of its critical points in a shortest possible time. It is also important to mention here that the price action has been inconsistent / weak for some time.  So, it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery of a mild nature but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 23427 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its very short pullback threshold point of 22938 (figure may change), sustained close it may help it to move-up further.

2. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23659.18 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.

5 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23376----23327----23207----23134---23128----23075(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

6 It is below its very short, short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 23127----23276----23611 (figure may change), sustained close below this point will help it to extend down move.

7. It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

8. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

9. It is below all its long-term moving averages therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 22940 for some time with a stop loss of 22850 or can buy on  sharp decline near or within the range of 22795---22770 with a short stop loss of 22700 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23165----23200 with a stop loss of 23260 or sell if it moves below 22940 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23040. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com