A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-20.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23877.15—High—24004.90---Low---23870.30---Close-23951.70 on 19.12.2024.

Support:23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 247.15 points. Please note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4—5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 24150, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup has terribly weakened today. It is below almost all its recent important & key support points on the chart and the long term uptrend is already threatened, which is a very weak sign. However it has managed to hold its critical support points of 23893.70----23873.35 & 23816.15 if it sustains above these points it may stage a recovery. But moving down from here the forthcoming very strong and important support points could be at 23783----23692----23574(figure will change daily) and then the last key support range is between 23350.40-----23263.15. Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points but break & sustained close below 23574 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend  and can drag it down to 23263.15 levels and finally break & sustained close below 23263.15 will trigger fresh fall and it can witness an accelerated down move. . It is into short & deep correction mode for earlier and recent rise now and the long term uptrend is also threatened.

 Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23974.50----24103.38----24141---24215----24336---24380----24463---24481.42(some figure will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 23974.50 & 24103.38 and sustain on the closing basis then it will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend and if it moves above the range of 24215---24481.42 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into strong up-momentum track if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15 & 24857.75 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

 TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottoms on the line chart, it has fallen below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and below few averages on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart also and most importantly it is below few long term moving average also thereby threatening the long term uptrend which is a very concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and it has triggered the sell mode in the maximum indicators, negative divergence is there and the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so it may stage a short relief rally some time and then resume the fall again. It is also important to mention here that the price action has also not been consistently positive off late. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication. The bias is negative as of now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-

It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24141, but long trade can also be tried on decline near critical support points for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it has been threatened.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall..

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.

5. The price action was weak today.

6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

7. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

8. It is below its short & strong pullback threshold point of 24103.88 & 23974.50(figure may change).

9. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24502----24438----24406----24379----24370----24358 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.

10. It is below few long terms moving average now 24463----24336 & 24215 and the other long term moving average are 23944----23825----23692 &23574, please note that sustained close below these points will weaken it and will drag it down.

11. It is below its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 23893---23873 for some time with a stop loss of 23800 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24120—24150 with a stop loss of 24225 or can sell if it moves below23870 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23970. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com