A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—30.10.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—51404.10--High—52354.85--Low—51278.90--Close—52320.70 on 29.10.2024. 

Support:52199.45/51996.65/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85. 

Resistance:52340.25/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a robust gain of 1061.40 points. The overall chart setup is still weak, it is still  into the deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but the positive development is that it is out of its corrective mode for its recent rise, today it bounced back above all its short & medium term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart, and it has made higher top today, it has given upside breakout from its immediate down trend line, furthermore few important technical indicators turned positive today and triggered buy signal also, therefore all together it indicates that this rise can extend further  in coming days provided it holds the key points as mentioned below . The short & medium term bias is down, but the long term uptrend is still intact.

 POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

 Please note that if It holds the range of 52015.06---51698----51535----51517----51202.74----50997 (figure may change) on the closing basis then the up move can extend for sure but break & sustained close below the range and particularly 51202.74 & 50997 will end the possibility of an up-move for a while. Moving up from here the broad upside target could be 52331----52577----52835----53459---53613 it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or up-move can fizzle out for good also, break & close below these points will start the downslide again. Please note that to gain a strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53488----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 52015.06---51698----51535----51517----51202.74------51052-----50997----50776-----50725.76----50676-----50617------50461-----50351---50022----49816----49771-----49710----49654.65------49646----49510-----49399----49201.72-----49120-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below the range of 52015.06---51698----51535----51517----51202.74 may end the possibility of a continued up –move for the time being. But  please note that  the range of 50997----50776-----50676----50617---50461-----50351 and then 50022----49816----49771---49710----49683---49654.65---49646-----49510---49399----49120(figure will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range,  break & sustained close below 50997 will threaten the long term uptrend and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below 49120 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now the overbought condition on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is present, some indicators triggered buy signal today  but the few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the daily,  weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too , so all together these developments are painting a mix picture now , so watch out for the next 2-3 days  that how it pans out eventually, therefore, all indication together based on the  indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down  and may seek much lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies after this on-going rally ends.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; break below 50997 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is above its weak & strong pullback threshold point of 50900.11 & 51202.74(figure may change) respectively, price above these points may help it extend the up-move.

4 The price action was positive today.

5. Three out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition and triggered buy signal.

6. It is out of correction mode for its recent rise as it closed above its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change).

7. It l has made higher top on the line chart.

8 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51517---51523---51535----51554---51580---51698(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help to extend the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Four out seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence, but in the overbought zone. Please note that indicators, on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.

3. It is into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43--- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----51492.11 ----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 52051 time with a stop loss of 51760 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52870---52970 with a stop loss of 53170. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.