A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-9.9.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25093.70--High-25168.75—Low---24801.30---Close-24852.15 on 6.9.2024.

Support:24771.65/24472.80/24401/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70.

Resistance:24854.80/24964.65/24999.75/25078.30/25333.65/25337/25375/25473/25494/25551/25671/25868/25967/26118/26263.

OVERALL, VIEW: --  

As envisaged after 14 days of vertical rise, it witnessed vertical fall today and it may continue, it opened on a negative note and thereafter moved in short range for some time then slipped down during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 292.95 points. Today’s move has given a severe jolt to the technical setup. It slipped into the correction mode as it closed below its threshold points of. 25042.44 & 24993.82, furthermore it fell below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and almost all important technical indicators have turned negative, therefore all together it seems that if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in the next 2-3 trading sessions and moves above 24993.82---25042.44 & 25078.35 and sustain on the closing basis, then the fall may continue with in between short relief rallies. Please note that if it moves above 24927(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then there will be some ray of hope that it can extend the up move, but to get back the required strength to move up smartly again it has to move above the range of 25086---25119----25177(figures will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, and to keep the up momentum going in the month of September-2024 it has to move above 25235.90 &25268.35 and sustain on the closing basis and for an accelerated up move it has to move above 25333.65 and sustain on the closing basis.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market and it has come into play today, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart to some extent now and most importantly negative divergence appeared on the daily and weekly chart indicating that it could slip down to 24370 &23500 levels in coming days, weeks & months is also very concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down further in coming days, if it does not stage sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24821---24801.30---24784----24717----24614---24571----24444----24391----24377---24343----24234---24182----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points but break and close below 24821 & 24801.30 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken it,  break and close below the range of 24377---24343----24099.70-----24074.20 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below the range of 23992.70---23985.80----23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this range then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

Since it is into correction mode today therefore it is sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in general till it comes out of the correction mode but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode therefore buy trade could be a risky affair, therefore one should be extra alert in the long trade.

NOTE:-MOVING DOWN IF IT HOLDS 24801 LEVELS, THEN THERE IS HOPE THAT IT COULD BOUNCE BACK FOR A WHILE; ELSE IT MAY TRIGGER FRESH FALL. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND. BUT IN CORRECTION MODE NOW.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE TILL IT GETS OUT OF CORRECTION MODE OR GIVES A VISIBLE SIGN OF CORRECTION COMPLETION.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart on the daily chart.

4. Two out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Five out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which indicates overbought condition, sell mode and negative divergence.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. The price action was weak today

5. It slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its threshold points of 25042.44 &24993.82 (figure may change). The other correction threshold points are 24377.33 & 24343.33 (figure may change) close below the threshold points is a weak sign.

6. It is below almost all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 25125---25122----25094----24995----24899----24821(figure will change every day), if it sustains below it then it is a weak sign and can drag it down.

7. It is below its recent pullback threshold point of 24927(figure may change), if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it may resume the up move again, else it may drift down.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 24852---24821---24801 for some time with a stop loss of 24740 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25040--25080 with a stop loss of 25140 or can sell if it moves below 24801 with a stop loss of 24870. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com