A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—5.7.2024

  

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—53357.70--High—53357.70--Low—52815.90---Close—52103.70 on 4.7.2024.

Support:53064/52966/52508/52218/51957/51823/51470/51133.20/50889.65/50467.77/50153.81/50122.13/49974.75/49688.85/49202/49057.40/48636.45/48381.95/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45.                           

Resistance:53180.75/53281/53357.70/54257/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened at a new all-time high of 53357.70 and the open was the high also and thereafter it had both side moves at slightly lower range and finally ended the day with a meager gain of 14.45 points. The chart setup is good but the volatility and overbought condition is still a concern and it could drag it down sharply in coming days. However if it manages to hold its first key support range point of 53036.49---52834.06----52667----52493----52454.47-----52353----52268.86----52167.20-----52026-----51996.65 & 51957 (figures may change) on the closing basis it is likely to continue the up move, break below 53036.49 will push it into short correction mode thereafter break below each point will deepen the correction further and sustained break below 52268.86---51996.65 & 51957 will be a warning sign and may trigger fresh fall. However even if it breaks the above mentioned points, but moving down as long as it holds the range of 51853.33-----51639.66-----51534----51343-----51250.53-----51133.20(figures may change) the chance of the up move will be alive from any of these points but sustained break below 51534 will signal that a big fall may be in the offing  and sustained break below 51133.20 could be a deep warning sign for a big down move to start and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be moderate to sharp in the intensity. It is important to mention here some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly chart are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action has been more or less consistently o.k. recently and it was positive today also. However in light of vertical rise, some weak indicators, overbought condition and volatility, it is suggested to trade the market with extreme caution and alert because it may witness a fall an  accelerated fall in coming days. Since it is out of all corrective modes it is buy on decline market now, but short trade can also be attempted on the rise at appropriate points for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM GOING-ON IN THE MONTH OF JULY-2024 IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 53180.75 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY MOVE SIDE WAYS OR DRIFT DOWN.

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important average range for today is between 52667----52493----52353----52026---51534---51343(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move.

5. Five out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

6. It has crossed all tops on the line and bar chart..

7. The price action was positive today.

8. It is out of all corrective mode and its important correction threshold points are at 53036.49---52834.06---52454.47-----52167.29---51853.33----51639.66----51250.53(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                            

WEAKNESS:-

1. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

2. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 53040----52970 with a stop loss of 52800 or can buy if it moves above 53181 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 53000, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 53650---53750 with a stop loss of 53880 or can sell below 52800 with a stop loss of 53050. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.