A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—15.5.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47748.85--High—47937.27--Low—46607.85---Close—47859.45 on 14.5.2024.

Support:  47737.20/47313.35/47279.80/46919.70/46579.05/46529.05/45828.80.                           

Resistance:48161.25/48203.45/48292.25/48636.45/ 49057.80/49173.36/49262/49396.75/49446.69/49676/49732/49883/49974.75.        

It opened on a flat note and then had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 105.35 points. It is still into deep correction mode for its recent rise. But the good thing is that it is above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then this rally can extend further, else down move may continue.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend as of now. But break below 46896 will threaten the uptrend.  

2. The short range for it now is between 49974.75---47737.20 and the long range is between 49974.75----46579.05.

3. It is above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend further and the possible upside target or resistance points could be at 48126---48203---48292---48479---48636.45—48832---49269----49377.

4. Moving down the possible good bounce back point could be at 47737.20---47689.25----47380---47258---46878---46579.05, sustained break below 47689.25 may end the on-going up move, sustained break below 46896 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 46579.05 could be a warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 46896 &46579.05 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark point.

5. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is into deep correction mode now for its recent rise.

2. It is below its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 &48636.45, please note that it is must to stay above these point to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024.It will catch up momentum above 48636.45 only.

3. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and some below the weekly chart also and the important range of averages is between 48328---48266---48228---48170---48100(figures will change every day), sustained close above this range may provide good strength and an impetus to move up.

4. It is below some of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

5. It has broken its recent bottom on the line and bar chart.

6. Technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to much lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

OVERALL VIEW:--The overall technical setup is weak as of now; therefore further fall may be ahead in the coming days. But as long as it holds its pullback threshold point of 47689.25 the on-going up move can extend. Therefore for safe traders it is suggested to try long trade if it holds 47689.25 on the closing basis, else avoid. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline at important support points or range for pullback gains. But it is still in the correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general or sell on the price breakdown. The long term trend is still up, but the short term bias is negative as of now. Please note that today’s move was positive.

TRADING CALL: --                                                                   

1. Aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 47690 if it hold it for some time with a stop loss of 47400 or if it moves above 47940 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47750 or on the sharp decline near or  within the range of 46896-----46580 with a stop loss of 46480.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48200 —48300 with a stop loss of 48400 or can sell below 47600 with a stop loss of 47740.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.