A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-15.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22677.40-High—22726.45—Low—22503.75--Close-22519.50 on 12.4.2024.

Support: 22516/22452.55/22440.90/22297.50/22234.35/22180.70/22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 234.40 points. It sharply corrected today broken recent bottom on the line chart and most importantly closed below its critical point of 22526.60, which is a weak sign and if does not bounce back above it in the next 1-2 trading sessions and sustain on the closing basis then it may slide down further from here. Please note that today it has filled the gap it created on 8.4.2024 (gap point 22537) within the stipulated time. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and today’s fall was may be just a trailer, however the other parameters are still ok and if it supports it may continue to move up but with in between correction, however fear of moving down may haunt at times because of the volatility, which please keep in mind.  It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568----22619-----22664.33----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a while. Please note that if it closes above 22568 and sustain then it may have further up move.

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 22484----22465----22398----22389-----22363.12-----22303.80---22297.50----22224.35-----22126.80----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top, it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again. Please note that today it slipped into short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 22664.33, furthermore it has threatened the on-going up move as it closed below it most critical point of 22526.60, sustained break below the range of 22407---22380---22363.12---22270 and then below 22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. The most crucial support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are positive now and one most important indicator has turned negative today on the daily chart, which is a mixed sign and indicates that there could be both side moves ahead. But three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly chart is negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months, furthermore there is no improvement on the weekly indicators from the previous week which is not a good sign, therefore ,volatility & some weak weekly & monthly indicator is a concern. Furthermore it has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today which is very weak sign. However, it still looks good on the moving average placement and price action has been consistently good and positive, but today it was terribly weak, so watch out, therefore please note that if the other parameters remain good the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction, else down move may continue. I once again repeat that some weekly & monthly indicators speak otherwise at this point of time, so ride the on-going rise with extreme caution and alert. It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into short correction mode today, therefore both side trades can be tried depending on price pattern.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- TODAY'S FALL WAS CONCERNING AND IF IT DOES NOT BOUNCE BACK ABOVE 22526.60 IN A DAY OR TWO THEN FALL MAY ACCELERATE. THEREFORE FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 22526.60. HOWEVER AGGERESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE AT CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH PROPER STOP LOSSES. IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE BELOW 22503 FOR THE DAY.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds 22503.75 for some time with a stop loss of 22450 or can buy if it moves above 22574 and maintain for some time with a stop-loss of 22500.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into short correction today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22640--- 22680 with a stop loss of 22730 or sell below 22500 with a stop loss of 22574 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com