A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—29.4.2024

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48660--High—48679.65-Low—48088.25---Close—48201.05 on 26.4.2024.

Support: 48166.15/48161.25/47795/47588/47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49057.80/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap but did not go much higher after that and thereafter started moving down and in the process filled the day’s gap also and finally ended the day with a loss of 293.90 points. Please note that after 5 days of rise in a row it corrected today, but the concerning thing is that it closed below its critical point of 48292.25 & 48203.45 and if it does not bounce back above it in the next 2-3 trading sessions then it may head down further. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months, so be alert and watchful and ride the rise with caution.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must sustain above these points on the closing basis. It is below all these points now, which is a weak sign, please note that to get a foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to move above its two critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 and sustain on the closing basis and to get back on the strong up momentum track it has to move above 48636.45 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down.

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 48203.45----48292.25----48295.45-----48472.51-----48561.73------48636.45-----48637.89-----48785-------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. It is into corrective mode now. Please note that sustained close above 48203.45---48292.25 will give it required strength for the continuation of the up move and sustained  close above 48636.45 & 48637.89 will put it back on the strong up momentum track and it will get out of all corrective mode and then in all likelihood it could retest its all-time high of 49057.40 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 48111—48045----47965.10----47937----47851----47818.23----47525.78---47491----47481.35-----47471.91----47416.73---47279.80---47163.94---47062----47010.80---46886.90----46598----46591-----46529.05---46507.15---46475-----46458---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----45447---44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into correction mode for its recent rise,  sustained break below the range of 48048----47937---47851 will weaken the on-going up move, but as long as it holds 47163.94(pullback threshold point) on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, sustained break below 46598 will threaten the long term uptrend, sustained break below 46475 will indicate that it could drag it down to 45828.80 levels , sustained break below 46369.50 & 46310.40 may trigger fresh fall, sustained break below 45828.80 will indicate that the correction could be much deeper and can last longer and finally  break below 45447 may jeopardize the long term uptrend and it could head for bigger fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken it further, which may please be noted. Please note that the most crucial, key and last important support point is 45828.80 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.   

It is important to mention here that two out of five important technical indicators are positive now but three are still negative on the daily chart, so it may have both side moves in coming days with slight downward bias. Furthermore one important indicator on the weekly and two indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. It has made lower top on the line chart today which is a weak sign. But the other parameter such as moving average placement is good and the price action has also been more or less consistently positive in the last few days. Therefore if the other parameter continues to improve then the up move may continue. I once again reiterate that indicators weakness on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore due caution and alert is important and necessary to ride the rise, because the on-going rally may end abruptly also and today’s fall was may be just a trailer. Please note that if it does not move and sustain above the important points of 48203.45---48292.25---48636.45 & 48637.89 in the next 2-3 trading sessions on the closing basis then down move may continue. It is in the long-term uptrend; but into short correction mode, the pullback mode is also on therefore both side trades can be tried depending on price action but one has to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 48293.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 48050---47950 but not below it with a stop loss of 47820. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it is into short correction mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48550—48640 with a stop loss of 48800. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.