A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—12.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21727--High—21804.45—Low—21629.90--Close-21782.50 on 9.2.2024.

Support: 21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/21676.90/21658.75/21593/21500.35/21492.90/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21801.45/ 21813.05/21834.35/21926.76/22124.15/22126.80/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the with a gain of 64.55 points. It is exhibiting huge volatility in fact having a see-saw movement quite often which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Kindly note that to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its  most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis. It bounced back above two points but still below the last point of 21801.45, it has to move above it and sustain for a steady continuation of the up move, similarly sustained break below the above points will trigger fall again and down move may continue and sustained break below 21682(figure will change every day) may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21747.17 & 21370.12(figure may change), it is above both the points now, therefore as long as it holds  these points on the closing basis chances of resuming the up move will  be alive, else it may drift down.

The chart setup has weakened a bit as it made lower top & bottom on the bar chart and broken recent bottom on the line chart, it slipped into short term corrective mode today for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) moving down from here its important support points could be at 21748.77----21731.40----21727.75-----21632---21515.23---21370.12—21335.15---21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break below 21137.20 may trigger fresh fall, which please note. Similarly moving up from here its upside resistance or target point could be at   21801.45---21820---21834.35---21878---21893.25---21926.76----21937----22010---22027.42---22124.15----22126.80---22220(figure may change) sustained close above 21801.45---21893.25 may put it back on the steady up track again. 

It is important to mention here that two out of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may go down further in the coming days. Furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative, it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart and the price action was also weak, all together situation looks concerning and further fall looks inevitable in coming days. However, as long as it holds 21370.12(figure may change) chances of up move will always be alive. I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its toll sooner or later and it may moderately or sharply head down in coming days. So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS INTO CORRECTION MODE AND TO GET BACK ON THE SMOOTH UP TRACK IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21801.45---21893.25--21926.76---AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, SIMILARLY BREAK BELOW 21731.40 & 21727.75 WILL TRIGGER FALL AGAIN  AND BREAK BELOW 21682(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of  21731---21717 with a stop loss of 21660 or if it moves above 21825 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21760.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it slipped into correction and pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21910--- 21930 with a stop loss of 21980 or sell below 21670 with a stop loss of 21750   It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com